Wall Street Journal - September 14, 2006
Bush Gets a Lift
From Emphasis On Terror, Iraq
Poll Shows Uptick in Support For President, War Effort; Overall Approval Still Weak
By JOHN HARWOOD
WASHINGTON -- President Bush's efforts to explain and win support for his policies on Iraq and terrorism appear to be paying some initial dividends as midterm congressional campaigns heat up.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that Mr. Bush's overall approval rating, as well as his marks on handling Iraq, rose modestly after a series of speeches imploring Americans to remain patient despite repeated setbacks in Iraq. Voters also expressed slightly increased willingness to maintain U.S. troop strength there as commanders struggle to tamp down a continued insurgency and sectarian violence.
It remains "a modest uptick" in "a very difficult national environment" for the president's party in midterm elections, cautions Republican pollster Bill McInturff. The president's approval rating remains weak at 42%, though it is improved from 38% in June. A 54% majority of voters continues to say the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction.
Yet the poll results suggest Mr. Bush retains some ability to shape the context of the election to his party's benefit. Whether that can last beyond the anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks through to Election Day on Nov. 7 remains an open question. If so, the president could lighten what has been a period of persistent gloom for Republicans. Along with the roiling Iraq issue, factors that have cost the party range from the federal government's initial response to Hurricane Katrina to the administration's fizzled Social Security privatization to rising gasoline prices.
The unpopular war and the historic pattern of midterm losses for the party holding the White House have strategists in both parties maintaining forecasts of Republican losses in Congress. Still, it remains unclear whether those losses will flip control of the House or the Senate or both. Republicans have held the House since 1994 and the Senate since 2002.
"In meteorological terms, it's going to be a hurricane -- what has yet to be determined is whether it's Category 1 or Category 3 or Category 5," says Peter Hart, the Democratic pollster who conducts the Journal/NBC survey with Mr. McInturff. "If [Mr. Bush] has the ability to dominate the dialogue, he can push this election toward the Republicans even as he remains unpopular with the voters."
Mr. Bush used the 9/11 anniversary to buttress his assertion that Iraq is the "central front" in the antiterror campaign, an argument that might help Republicans limit their losses and hold control of at least one chamber of Congress for the final two years of Mr. Bush's presidency.
And officials of the Republican Party and at the White House yesterday were celebrating the Tuesday night primary victory of a Republican who opposed the war, moderate Sen. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island. Though Mr. Chafee had opposed Mr. Bush on tax cuts and the war, party strategists concluded he has a far better chance of holding the seat against Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse in November than his conservative challenger did. Mr. Chafee's re-election would increase the odds against the Democrats' gaining the six seats it needs to capture Senate control. (Please see related article.)
Strategists in both parties believe Democrats have a stronger chance of picking up the 15 seats necessary to win control of the House. Yet economic developments have the potential to brighten voters' mood after months in which Mr. Bush and Republicans received scant credit for continued growth and low unemployment.
Crude-oil prices have fallen from $77 a barrel in early August to $63.97 yesterday, sending gasoline prices well below previous highs of more than $3 a gallon at the pump. And stock prices continued their climb from a slump in July: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 45.23 points yesterday to close at 11543.32 -- just 1.6% short of the record.
So far, all of this is providing only mixed benefits for Republican candidates. Approval of Congress actually fell to 20% in this month's survey from 24% in July, and Democrats maintained a 48%-39% edge on voters' preference of which party should control Capitol Hill.
At the same time, the Journal/NBC poll shows voters split on whether their incumbent House member deserves re-election. In July, voters said it was time to "give a new person a chance" by a 10-percentage- point margin. Voters also say by 42% to 37% that they are more concerned Democrats have offered "no specific plans" than that Republicans have offered "no changes" to deal with the country's problems. The telephone survey of 1,009 registered voters, conducted Sept. 8-11, carries a margin for error of 3.1 percentage points.
In part, those results show the impact of Republican candidates' advertising attacks on their Democratic foes at an earlier point in the campaign season than in past elections. Democrats acknowledge that Mr. Bush's party has been quicker this year than President Clinton's allies were in 1994 to gauge the depth of political trouble they face and adjust tactics accordingly.
The adjustments have been reflected on Capitol Hill in Republican leaders' decision, made in conjunction with White House officials, to spend September debating the surveillance and prosecution of terror suspects in the wake of court decisions rejecting Mr. Bush's initial approach to both. Some Republican lawmakers are dissenting from Mr. Bush's approach, but the Journal/NBC survey shows voters prefer Republicans to Democrats on handling terrorism by a 14-percentage- point margin. (Please see related article.)
Another such step was Republican leaders' decision to shelve Mr. Bush's request for a comprehensive overhaul of immigration laws in the face of conservative opposition to a guest-worker program embracing some who already have crossed the border illegally. Instead, House Republicans spent much of the summer courting conservatives by emphasizing border security.
Whatever the cause, the Journal/NBC poll shows Republicans have taken initial steps toward narrowing the gap in voter interest that has favored the Democratic faithful for months. In July, 57% of Democratic voters expressed the highest possible level of interest in the election, compared with 46% of Republicans.
Now, that "interest gap" has narrowed to 51%-46% in the Democrats' favor. Hispanic voters, the constituency Republicans have feared alienating with an emphasis on border security, evince significantly less interest in the election than either whites or African-Americans.
Democrats hold the upper hand on some key issues in the survey, including a 23-percentage-point edge on handling Social Security and a 12-percentage-point advantage on handling the economy. Voters citing jobs, Social Security or health care as their top priority -- a group that accounts for nearly half the electorate -- want Democrats to win control of Congress, 60% to 25%.
Yet the slightly smaller group naming terrorism, moral values or immigration as top priorities favors Republican control by a similarly lopsided margin. That means control of the campaign dialogue will be a critical factor in battleground House and Senate races.
The Iraq war, now in its fourth year and with more than 2,500 U.S. troop deaths, remains the Republicans' most daunting political problem because it has depressed the overall public mood and fueled demand for change. Still, the poll shows how Republican candidates may best be able to limit the political fallout.
When offered a choice between a Republican who wants to maintain troop levels and a Democrat who wants to reduce them, voters choose the Democrat by a 53%-40% margin. If offered a choice between a Republican who wants to maintain troop levels and a Democrat seeking "immediate and orderly withdrawal," voters prefer the Republican by 48%-41%.
"There's a reason that Republicans and the president are trying to make this a choice for stability [in Iraq] versus 'cut-and-run,'" says Mr. McInturff, the Republican pollster. "If you're a Republican candidate, you'd better make this election on a narrow range of issues."
The Journal/NBC survey shows Mr. Bush's approval rating on the economy has risen to 43% from 39% in June. That may in part reflect an easing of energy costs; 26% cite "gas prices and energy costs" as the biggest economic trouble spot, down from 41% in July.
Rising stock-market values haven't yet translated into increasing optimism about the economy. Just one in five voters surveyed says the economy has improved in the past year, unchanged since June.