<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1"> <META content="MSHTML 6.00.2900.2802" name=GENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=#ffffff> <DIV> <DIV><A href="">http://newappeal.blogspot.com/2006/01/hamas-victory-artificial-sweep.html</A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Hamas's stunning victory has been described as a "sweeping victory."  However, the lopsided "wide margin" in the Palestinian Parliament is largely the result of an electoral system that is even more disproportionate than the US or Canadian First-Past-The-Post system, rather than a overwhelming </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The Palestinian system featured two tiers (1) multi-member districts and (2) a national proportional list.   The multi-member districts reward parties with greater discipline and punish ticket- splitting.  More than 100 Fatah members ran as independents and there were several smaller lists which appealed to Fatah voters.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The system was designed to benefit Fatah but it ended up helping Hamas.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Hamas has won apparently 76 seats, Fatah 43, and other parties and independents 13.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Looking at the actual votes on the nationalist, shows a relatively close division of opinion.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Here are the national proportional results</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3> <P align=left>Hamas 434,817 (30 seats)</P> <P align=left>Fatah Movement 403,458 (27 seats)</P> <P align=left>Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa (PFLP) 41,671 (3 seats)</P> <P align=left>The Alternative 28,779 (coalition of t<FONT size=2>he Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), the Palestinian People's Party, and the Palestinian Democratic Union Party)</FONT> (2 seats)</P> <P align=left>Independent Palestine (Mustafa Barghouti)  26,554 (2 seats)</P> <P align=left>The Third Way 23,513 ( 2 seats)</P> <P align=left>(Doesn't include votes for list that didn't make the threshold.)</P> <P align=left>Among other things this means that the exit polls were not that wrong.  The difference between the predicted narrow Fatah victory and the actual Hamas victory was not that great.  </P> <P align=left>It may also explain why Fatah is eager to go into opposition. </P> <P align=left> </P> <P align=left>Stuart Elliott</P> <P align=left><A href="">http://newappeal.blogspot.com/</A><BR><A href="">www.ksworkbeat.org</A></P></FONT></DIV></DIV></BODY></HTML>