<div><A href="http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_11/010211.php">http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_11/010211.php</A></div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div><B>Myth #1: It was the youth vote that pushed Democrats over the top.</B></div> <div><STRONG></STRONG> </div> <div>Nope. In 2004 Dems won 55% of the youth vote. This year they won 60%. That's a swing of 5 points, exactly the same as the overall nationwide swing in favor of Democrats.</div> <div> </div> <div>In fact, it's actually worse than that: the number of young voters (age 18-29) decreased from 16% of the electorate in 2004 to 12% of the electorate in 2006. This means that in 2004 they amounted to 8.8% of the total Dem vote, compared to 7.2% in 2006. The youth vote was a fizzle.</div> <div> </div> <div><B>Myth #2: Democrats won a third of the white evangelical vote.</B></div> <div><STRONG></STRONG> </div> <div>I have no idea where this one came from. In 2004 Dems won 25% of the white evangelical vote. This year Dems won 28%. That's a swing of 3 points, which is actually a bit <I>less</I> than the overall Democratic swing. Turnout was about the same both years.</div> <div> </div> <div>Bottom line: Nothing happened here.</div> <div> </div> <div><B>Myth #3: Democrats won by running conservative candidates.</B></div> <div><STRONG></STRONG> </div> <div>A few high-profile Democratic candidates had conservative views on certain issues (Casey on abortion, Tester on guns), but overall the newly-elected Dems look a lot like the current Democratic caucus.</div> <div> </div> <div>And the exit polls back this up. In 2004, Democrats got 17% of the vote from self-described conservatives. This year it was 20%. As with evangelicals, this is <I>less</I> than the overall nationwide swing. Conservatives are still solidly supporting the Republican Party.</div> <div> </div> <div><SPAN class=time>—<A href="mailto:calpundit@cox.net">Kevin Drum</A> </SPAN></div><p>  <hr size=1>Everyone is raving about <a href="http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=42297/*http://advision.webevents.yahoo.com/mailbeta">the all-new Yahoo! Mail beta.</a>