You just depressed the living crap out of me.
You know, when extraterrestrial paleontologists come to Earth in 20-30 million years, what they're going to see left of the current epoque in the fossil record is an immense period of extinction, that is, mass death. _That_ will be the legacy of the human species.
Let's see, it took 60 million years after the last great extinction to produce "rational" species. I wonder how long it'll take after this one. I could see rats filling the empty ecological niches, including homo sapiens'. They're doing pretty well, and they're smart and can manipulate objects. Might take less than 60 million years.
--- John Thornton <jthorn65 at sbcglobal.net> wrote:
>
> I know I'll be labeled a Malthusian by James and his
> ilk but the reality
> is we are unlikely to avoid the extinction of all
> wild animals and all
> wild spaces.
> The projection I remember reading went like this.
>
> If the current rate of bringing land into
> development and conserving
> land as wild, as has been practiced over the last 20
> years, were
> projected forward the two lines would never
> intersect, meaning
> development will always out pace conservation until
> 100% of the landmass
> is consumed.
>
> If we cut development by 25% and increase
> conservation by 33% of those
> same rates the point of intersection is a negative
> number. Meaning that
> intersection would not theoretically take place
> until 100% of the of the
> landmass were consumed.
>
> If we cut development 50% and increase conservation
> 66% of those same
> rates the point of intersection occurs at a positive
> number near 90%.
> This means 90% of all the landmass has been
> developed. Since the
> Himalayas, Rimo Muztagh, Rocky's, Alp's,
> Carpathian's, and parts of
> other mountain ranges are really unsuited for any
> real development 90%
> development means 99% habitat and wildlife loss. The
> loss of everything
> below tree-line is a fairly complete loss.
>
> If we cut development by 75% and increase
> conservation by 100% of those
> rates then we can avert the extinction of all
> wildlife on the planet.
> We'll still lose much more than we currently have
> but we won't lose it
> all and a substantial amount of biodiversity will
> remain.
>
> Now some will argue that this won't happen and some
> will argue it
> doesn't matter. If you believe it doesn't matter
> then that is your
> choice but to believe it won't happen is hard to
> swallow. The numbers
> speak for themselves. While the extinction isn't
> inevitable I have a
> hard time believing we will, in the extremely near
> future, cut the
> losses to wildlife habitat that are a product of
> human development
> enough to prevent this. If you believe the change
> will be this dramatic
> and this fast you have a much more Panglossian
> outlook than I do.
>
> Incidentally wildlife means not just a tiger but a
> tiger living in its
> natural habitat. A tiger in a zoo is not wildlife
> but rather an animal
> in captivity.
>
> John Thornton
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