Geopolitics and the U.S. Spoiling Attack
By George Friedman [Stratfor]
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In considering the situation [in Iraq], our attention is drawn to a strange paradox that has been manifest in American foreign policy since World War II. On the one hand, the United States has consistently encountered strategic stalemate or defeat in particular politico-military operations. At those times, the outcomes have appeared to be disappointing if not catastrophic. Yet, over the same period of time, U.S. global power, on the whole, has surged. In spite of stalemate and defeat during the Cold War, the United States was more in 2000 than it had been in 1950.
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This appears to make no sense until we introduce a military concept into the analysis: the spoiling attack. The spoiling attack is an offensive operation; however, its goal is not to defeat the enemy but to disrupt enemy offensives -- to, in effect, prevent a defeat by the enemy. The success of the spoiling attack is not measured in term of enemy capitulation, but the degree to which it has forestalled successful enemy operations.
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Interesting.
As the author wisely notes, later in the essay, it's impossible to say whether or not this "spoiling attack" strategy (if indeed this is what's going on) is deliberate or the result of circumstances aligning to make it the most effective tactic Washington can employ.
Still, it's an intriguing argument.
Assuming, for the sake of this post, that Washington has indeed conducted spoiling operations falsely presented as world changing, do or die conflicts and that these operations have contributed to the growth of American power in the post WW2 era instead of depleting it, I wonder if War Plan Iraq's unraveling will prove to be the beginning of the end of this technique's useful life.
That is, this time around, it's difficult to imagine US power growing much further because of any spoiling effect.
What form would such 'growth' take? Greater economic penetration of 'core' nations? Even more military bases? Direct or proxy control over global petrol flows?
It's difficult to see.
.d.