On Apr 16, 2007, at 2:44 PM, Joseph Catron wrote:
> On 4/16/07, Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> wrote:
>
>> Maybe not, but tendencies are rarely 100% of anything. Self-
>> identification may matter - do the United Methodists, for example,
>> identify as Methodist or evangelical?
>
> Primarily as Methodists, but one could ask the same question about
> members of the Assemblies of God or the Southern Baptist Convention
> with similar results. The Catholics, Episcopalians, Orthodox, etc.
> identify themselves as such, not as members of the Apostolic
> Succession.
I'm talking about how people identify themselves to exit pollsters. I suspect there's a big diff between people who self-identify as Methodist and those who i.d. as evangelical.
>> In an analysis of the 2004 vote, Pew pointed out that the best
>> statistical predictors of vote were black race (overwhelmingly Kerry)
>> and frequent churchgoing (overwhelmingly Bush).
>
> And yet, blacks reported attending church far more often than whites
> in a 2004 Association of Religion Data Archives survey. Lies and
> damned lies, methinks...
No, probably statistical controls for race.