[lbo-talk] [DEBATE] : (Fwd) Doug Henwood on elite climatechange strategy

Jordan Hayes jmhayes at j-o-r-d-a-n.com
Mon Apr 23 19:27:21 PDT 2007


Wojtek writes:


> Africa is especially promising for brand new
> technologies, because it does not have the 'sunk cost'
> factor associated with old ones. You can invest in
> solar energy technology without making the old enegy
> production obsolete (since little or none exists,) and
> put Africa ahead of the United states in a short
> period of time (just like mobile telephony) - but to
> that, you need to subsidize investment.

Maybe you should look into the economics of solar energy a little bit ... let me give you a hint: global solar is not being held back by lack of investment. All of the interesting proposals for using solar presume the economics come from not having to provide the power in other ways -- and since Africa doesn't use that much today, you're talking about having to foot the entire bill. Solar only makes (some) sense in places like California and Las Vegas where you can say: if we don't do solar, we have to do something else, which is much more expensive and painful.

You don't "have to" do something else in Africa.

The materials required for solar power generation are neither cheap nor plentiful.

And: interstingly enough, the more you buy _the more expensive it gets_ -- the solar industry relies on cheap silicon 'scrap' from semi-conductor manufacturers. If solar panels got popular, they'd have to source the silicon elsewhere, at higher prices. Likewise, when the semiconductor industry is on a tear, it's more worth it to them to skimp on the 'scrap' ... and prices go up.

/jordan



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