Gallup Poll Review: 10 Key Points About Public Opinion on Iraq Most Americans support timetable for removing troops, oppose cutting funding altogether
by Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, Lydia Saad, and Joseph Carroll GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- With the war in Iraq dominating U.S. news and with a major fight looming between the White House and Congress on new legislation that would fund the Iraq war but simultaneously call for a timetable for troop withdrawal, the opinions of the average American citizen are vitally important. There has been an enormous amount of public opinion polling on Iraq since the war began in 2003, particularly in the last several months. What follows is a brief outline of 10 important points about the people's views of the war.
1. The Iraq war is an extremely high priority for Americans.
A wide variety of measures show that the war in Iraq is the nation's top problem at this point in time, and is by far the top issue with which the public wants its elected representatives in Washington to deal. Unless there is a significant change between now and next year, the war is likely to be one of the top issues in the 2008 presidential and congressional elections.
Sixty-two percent of Americans rate Iraq as an "extremely important" issue for the president and Congress, the highest of any issue tested as this year began.
Thirty-three percent of Americans name Iraq as the "most important problem" facing the country today, by far the most dominant issue mentioned. Iraq has been the No. 1 issue on this question since April 2004.
Two in three Americans choose Iraq as the top priority for the president and Congress to deal with, far and away the most frequently mentioned issue.
2. A majority of Americans say it was a mistake for the United States to have become involved in Iraq.
Americans initially supported the war as it began in March 2003, but by the summer of 2004, a majority said it was a mistake. Perceptions about the war in Iraq remained volatile in 2004 and parts of 2005, but with one exception, at least half of Americans have called sending troops to Iraq a "mistake" since January 2006.
So far this year, an average of 57% of Americans across six polls has said it was a mistake for the United States to send troops to Iraq.
It is important to note that opposition to the war in Iraq is not monolithic. Support for the administration's position on most measures concerning the war, although a minority, ranges from the mid-30s to the mid-40s.
3. Americans perceive that the war is not going well for the United States.
Since April 2005, a majority of Americans have said things are going badly for the United States in Iraq, and more recently this perception has become even more pronounced. Most Americans also doubt the United States will win the war.
As of January 2007, 71% of Americans in a Gallup Poll said the Iraq war is going badly, including 38% who said it is going very badly; only 28% said it is going well. A CBS News poll conducted in mid- April showed 66% saying the war was going badly. Most Americans do not think the United States will win the war.
4. Americans do not believe the troop surge is having a positive effect.
There are few signs so far that significant numbers of Americans perceive that the troop surge in Iraq is making things in that country better. The majority either say the surge is making no difference or is making things worse.
These attitudes follow earlier poll results showing that the majority of Americans opposed the surge before it was initiated by the administration.
5. Americans perceive that the benefits of winning the war do not outweigh the costs involved.
With negative perceptions of the war's progress as a backdrop, it may not be surprising that the public sees little upside for Americans in the cost-benefit trade-off of continuing the war.
By a nearly 2-to-1 margin, 65% to 31%, Americans say the benefits of winning the war in Iraq to the United States are not worth the costs the United States would have to bear in order to win it.
One attitude associated with the perception that the benefits do not outweigh the costs is that only about a third of Americans believe the threat of terrorism against the United States might increase if American troops withdraw.
In an April 9-12, 2007, CBS News poll, 30% of Americans say the threat of terrorism against the United States would increase if the government withdrew its troops from Iraq, while 8% say the threat of terrorism would decrease. Fifty-nine percent say there would be no change.
At the same time, a slight majority of Americans interviewed by Gallup in March perceived that when U.S. troops leave Iraq, insurgent attacks in that country will increase. This apparently is not enough of a factor to cause a majority of Americans to oppose the war.
6. Most Americans support a timetable for removing troops from Iraq within the next year, but not immediate withdrawal.
Despite their overall negativity about the war, only about one in five Americans favor an immediate withdrawal of troops. Many of the rest support a gradual withdrawal of troops, preferably within a year. The majority of Americans do not favor an open-ended commitment of troops in Iraq.
It thus follows that a wide variety of polls conducted in the last two months indicate a majority of Americans (generally between 55% and 60%) now support a timetable for withdrawal of U.S. troops by next year.
Gallup trends show the public about evenly divided on this in 2005, but opinion has now moved to the point at which a majority supports the timetable.
A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll specifically included the political entities behind each position in the current battle over withdrawal timetable legislation, and found that Americans preferred the timetable for withdrawal of troops as supported by the "Democrats in Congress" over "President Bush's" administration policy of no timetable for withdrawal, by a 19-point margin.
7. Less than a majority of Americans support cutting funding for the war.
Although some Democrats in Congress suggested cutting funds for the troops in Iraq as a means of forcing a change in U.S. policy, most Americans do not support this.
As of late March 2007, 36% favored and 61% opposed denying the funding needed to send any additional U.S. troops to Iraq. Similar results were found in February.
8. Democrats are better positioned than the Republicans on handling the issue of Iraq.
Since 2005, the public has perceived that Democrats are better able than Republicans to handle the issue of Iraq. Prior to this, Americans gave the Republicans the edge. Americans also say they trust the Democrats in Congress more than the administration when it comes to making decisions on Iraq. But that does not mean Americans are satisfied with the way the Democrats have handled the issue. In February, 30% approved of the way congressional Democrats were handling the issue, compared with a 27% approval rating for congressional Republicans. Most also say the Democrats lack a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq.
9. War views are highly partisan.
Views of the Iraq war are sharply divided along partisan lines. Republicans overwhelmingly support the war; Democrats overwhelmingly oppose it. Independents are more likely to oppose than favor the war.
Republicans generally defend the decision to send troops to Iraq: 74% say it was not a mistake vs. 24% calling it a mistake. By a 63-point margin (81% vs. 18%), Democrats call sending troops to Iraq a mistake. Sixty-four percent of Republicans oppose a timetable for withdrawal of troops from Iraq, while 81% of Democrats favor it.
Nearly half of Republicans (49%) say the recent troop surge in Baghdad is making the situation there better, while 9% say it is making it worse. Thirty-five percent of Republicans say it is making no difference. Among Democrats, just 10% say the troop surge is making the situation better, while 43% say it is making it worse and 45% say it is making no difference.
Support for past U.S. wars -- including Vietnam -- was not as polarized along party lines as the current war. Gallup data from 1968 and 1969 show that 53% of Americans said it was a mistake to send troops to Vietnam. Fifty-one percent of Democrats agreed with this position at the time, as did 55% of independents and 56% of Republicans.
10. A gender gap exists in views of the Iraq war.
There is a significant gender gap in terms of attitudes on the war. Women are much more likely than men to say it was a mistake and to support a timetable for removing U.S. troops. The gender gap is most pronounced among independents and Democrats.
Sixty-two percent of women say it was a mistake to send troops to Iraq, compared with 52% of men. Two in three women (66%) support a timetable for removing troops from Iraq; less than half of men (48%) agree.
Male Republicans are only slightly more likely than female Republicans to favor keeping troops in Iraq and to oppose the idea of a timetable. But gender plays a larger role among independents and Democrats. Sixty-one percent of independent women support the timetable, compared with 54% of independent men. And among Democrats, it's bigger still -- 65% of Democratic men support the timetable, versus an overwhelming 89% of Democratic women.