<http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/06/world/middleeast/06lebanon.html> August 6, 2007 Opposition Has Edge in Lebanon Vote By HASSAN M. FATTAH
ROUMIEH, Lebanon, Aug. 5 — Lebanon's fragile stability was jolted Sunday by a hotly contested parliamentary election in an important Christian district where a little-known opposition candidate claimed victory. If the claim is verified, it would be a major blow to Lebanon's governing Western-backed coalition, which has been engaged in an intense power struggle with an alliance of opponents for months.
Unofficial results indicated that the opposition candidate, Kamil Khoury, who represents the Free Patriotic Movement, led by the Maronite Christian leader Gen. Michel Aoun, had won a seat left vacant by the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, a Parliament member, last November.
Mr. Khoury's performance was all the more surprising because his rival was Mr. Gemayel's father, former President Amin Gemayel, who comes from one of Lebanon's most prominent political dynasties and is an important voice in the anti-Syrian majority now in power.
"If Gemayel loses it would mean an end to his political career and ambitions, and maybe an end to the political family itself," said Talal Atrissi, professor of political sociology at Lebanese University.
Mr. Gemayel did not concede defeat and urged supporters to await the official results from the Interior Ministry. He accused General Aoun's party of vote-rigging.
If Mr. Khoury is declared the winner, General Aoun's own political prospects would be greatly enhanced and it would strengthen his drive to bring down the government, which has been resisting demands from an alliance of General Aoun, the militant organization Hezbollah and other pro-Syrian groups in Lebanon for more power.
General Aoun has been actively engaged in campaigning to be the next president of Lebanon when Parliament elects a new president this fall. Under the power-sharing political system between Lebanon's Christians, Muslims, Druse and other sects, the president must be a Christian.
Turnout was mixed as Lebanese voters went to the polls in the predominantly Christian Metn district and in a Beirut district to fill two seats left vacant by the assassinations of Mr. Gemayel last November and the Sunni Muslim Walid Eido in June. Both lawmakers were members of the March 14 movement, a force in the so-called Cedar Revolution that helped to end Syria's 29-year presence in Lebanon two years ago and a vocal opponent of Syria.
Mr. Eido's seat had been widely expected to be taken by a Sunni candidate fielded by March 14, and turnout was comparatively low.
But the election battle in the Maronite Christian Metn region of Mount Lebanon, just north of Beirut, proved a heated and bitter contest between two poles of an increasingly divided Christian population.
The election in Metn was preceded by a heated campaign, with Mr. Gemayel's backers emphasizing the sacrifices of his son and other members of his family who have been slain in assassinations during Lebanon's violent political history, while General Aoun's supporters accused the governing party of divisiveness and of not representing the people.
"This battle is to complete this country's sovereignty, confirm the Cedar Revolution and accomplish the goals of the independence uprising," Mr. Gemayel said before the vote.
The results were also a referendum on the March 14 Movement, which has increasingly alienated many Christians, some voters said Sunday. It furthermore underscored the gains General Aoun had made ever since he arrived from exile in France in 2005 with a populist message eschewing what he called Lebanon's sectarian feudalism.
That General Aoun's candidate, a virtual political unknown, proved a tough competitor to Mr. Gemayel, the onetime president who curried sympathy and campaigned in his son's memory, underscored the level of discontent many Christians here have been feeling and the resonance of General Aoun's message.
The general, in alliance with Hezbollah, has led the revolt against Lebanon's political system, demanding greater inclusion and an end to control by a series of political dynasties.
The opposition has held a sit-in in Beirut since December, crippling the rebuilt downtown and leaving the country in a virtual political stalemate. And it has demanded the resignation of the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, which is backed by the United States and other Western powers.
Here in Roumieh, a onetime stronghold of the Phalangist party of Mr. Gemayel, the gradual shift toward the Free Patriotic Movement of General Aoun has even created tensions between families.
"It has become divided socially," said Michel el-Ghoul, 23, a resident of Roumieh who once supported the Phalangists and is now an Aoun supporter. He said many Phalange supporters ostracized him when he switched sides.
Adel Azar, a relative of Mr. Ghoul who gathered with him and other members of the family after voting early on Sunday, said: "The Phalangists took us for granted. They used to talk about us as, 'They belong to us.' But things changed."
Many fear that the political struggle in Lebanon may lead to the formation of competing governments if Parliament fails to elect a new president by Nov. 23, when the widely criticized pro-Syrian president, Émile Lahoud, is required to step down.
Nada Bakri contributed reporting from Beirut, Lebanon.
-- Yoshie