>On Aug 12, 2007, at 8:57 AM, bitch at pulpculture.org wrote:
>
> > Exactly. so, shouldn't the question be: as the real estate bubble
> > based
> > economy tanks, what kind of effect will it have on the employment
> > situation
> > of those in industries dependent on a booming real estate market?
> > Or, is
> > that so negligible it won't have any sort of domino effect?
>
>According to several Wall Street estimates, about half the growth in
>jobs and GDP through 2005 came from housing, directly or indirectly.
>(Indirectly = because of the wealth effect or the direct extraction
>of equity via cashout refinancings and lines of credit). Remarkably,
>though, while we're seeing a slowdown in retail sales lately, that's
>partly a reflection of the housing reversal, the decline in
>construction employment has been very modest so far - off only about
>5% over the last year, while residential investment is off about 17%.
>
>Doug
thanks. And maybe some of its made up for in terms of business that emerges to address new market conditions. Prob. stupid to base this on television but I think it says something about where what's "hot" in the wider culture lately. I happened to tune into those shows on HGTV, TLC, etc. The ones that are all about redecorating on the cheap or not so cheap, flipping a house, life working for a real estate company. It's pretty interesting how these shows just sprouted in, what?, the last 4-5 years. Previously, the remodeling and redecorating was not at all about selling the home. It was about turning a home into something you like better or about how to update the kitchen on the cheap. In other words, geared to people who'd bought a home (not something they planned to sell).
Now it's all about "flipping homes" where the reality show is to see if the real estate company or the speculative investors can meet their budgets and still make a profit on the investment. The others are about showing people how to redecorate or re-arrange furniture to make the house more buyer-friendly. They encourage people to go to a fuckload of expense just to ensure that they get $500k rather than $450k or whathaveyou. I've often wondered how much of that is reflective of what people are experiencing and how much of it is excellent propaganda -- it creates demand. In this case, demand for or the desire to make some "easy" cash. (And btw, a lot of the folks I've met at work, the people in sales, have been people who had once hoped to "make it big" in real estate sales. Ooops. Sorry. Wrong career choice perhaps. I think the bigger blow is psychological: removing people's hopes for quick and easy money. And frankly, whenever folks fall for that crap, I really have a hard time feeling sorry for them.)
Anyway, perhaps the need or manufactured need to buy these services or hit the local big box hardware store, will create just enough demand to offset the losses in retail.
I wonder how many folks are trying to rent spare bedrooms in their 4 bedroom homes? I see a bit of this on craigslist. Saw someone asking for another person to share what looked like a nice lil ol' mansion with 4 master suites, 4 car garage, pool, etc. The last time I saw a lot of that was at the height of the rise in divorce rates (which have since flattened and slightly declined) in, what?, the late 80s. Kate and Ally. :)
Bitch | Lab http://blog.pulpculture.org (NSFW)