You can't bet without first surveying the Japanese Left, which, if nothing else, is rich in its own media (the Japanese Communist Party has a daily national newspaper, which favorably compares to its bourgeois counterparts, and whose production value is probably the best among all left-wing newspapers in the world) and popular front institutions. If you survey the Japanese Left, you will notice that the main forces of the Left, the JCP and a multitude of civil society organizations (some of which are the JCP's popular front institutions and others are autonomous of the party), are incorrigibly pacifist, at least in political rhetoric.
The Left in Japan, unlike the Right, is critical of Japan's ever more increasing military integration into the doings of the American empire, but, paradoxically, it passionately defends the very political foundation -- the Constitution of Japan written by the occupier -- that was designed to keep Japan in the shadow of American power, which precludes Japan's having a foreign policy of its own as surely as the Japanese Right's subservience to Washington and fake nationalist posturing to other Asian nations and Russia do.
To have a foreign policy, you have to have an economic policy to go with it and armed forces* capable of defending both if necessary. But you never hear any Japanese leftist talk frankly and sensibly about this last point.
The JCP's official policy holds that Japan's Self Defense Force violates the Constitution, and the party proposes to solve this problem by (1) defending Article 9 and opposing further militarization, (2) abrogating the Japan-US security treaty and putting an end to Japan's subservient relation to the USA, _and_ (3) abolishing the SDF.** How the people of Japan are to assert their independence of Washington without their own armed force to replace the American nuclear umbrella and to defend their country from the empire itself if necessary is left unsaid.
In practice, the JCP has been, slowly but surely, abandoning this untenable policy,*** but only to follow ad hoc what is being done anyway, not to propose a coherent alternative to it.
Given the LDP's self destruction (whose results are shown in in the Upper House elections) and the DP's moderation regarding constitutional revision, the momentum to revise the Constitution from the Right has dwindled for the time being. That gives leftists time, which they can use to rethink their own position and come up with a policy that makes sense (though I'm sure they never will).
* Never having had an authentic social revolution, Japan _completely_ lacks the tradition of armed forces as a popular, national institution, which makes it extremely difficult for Japan's leftists to break out of the pacifist ghetto.
** <http://www.jcp.or.jp/english/23rd_congress/program.html> 1. The Japan-U.S. Security Treaty will be abrogated in accordance with Article 10 providing that Japan can notify the U.S. government of its intention to terminate the treaty, and the U.S. forces and military bases will be withdrawn from Japan. Japan will conclude a friendship treaty with the United States on an equal footing.
Unjustifiable U.S. intervention will be rejected also in economic affairs, so as to establish independence in all fields, including finance, foreign exchange, and trade.
2. Japan after recovering sovereignty will follow the path of peace, neutrality, and non-alignment to establish friendship with all countries, instead of entering into any military alliances, and participate in the conference of the non-aligned countries.
3. With regard to the Self-Defense Forces, the law allowing the SDF dispatch abroad will be repealed, and disarmament steps will be taken. In view of new developments that will follow the abrogation of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, steps should be taken toward the complete implementation of Article 9 of the Constitution (dissolution of the SDF) based on national consensus.
*** <http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0XPQ/is_2000_Nov_27/ai_67543183/print> Japan Policy & Politics, Nov 27, 2000
2ND LD: JCP convention OKs use of SDF in emergencies
TOKYO, Nov. 24 Kyodo
(EDS: ADDING NEWS CONFERENCE OF NEW LEADERS)
The Japanese Communist Party (JCP) on Friday adopted a resolution approving the use of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) in emergencies, as well as a revision of its constitution to abandon the idea of the ''vanguard party.''
The new policy concerning Japan's de facto military forces, which the JCP still regards as unconstitutional, was endorsed in the closing session of the party's 22nd convention, which started Monday in Atami, Shizuoka Prefecture.
The resolution stated that the convention's participants continue to believe the existence of the SDF runs contrary to Japan's war-renouncing Constitution, but said, ''It is natural to use the existing forces for people's safety in emergencies.''
During the five-day meeting, JCP Secretariat head Kazuo Shii insisted that ''emergencies'' be interpreted as abrupt invasions and disasters.
****<http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200708080137.html> Support dwindles on issue of revision
08/08/2007 THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
Support for constitutional amendment, a key policy issue for the embattled Abe administration, is the lowest among lawmakers in the Upper House since 2003, reflecting the opposition's newly won majority in the chamber, a poll shows.
Only 53 percent of Upper House lawmakers support constitutional revision, far less than the two-thirds required to initiate an amendment, according to a joint survey by The Asahi Shimbun and the University of Tokyo.
It is the first time the figure, which includes newly elected lawmakers, has fallen below the mandatory two-thirds mark in either chamber since the 2003 Lower House election. The joint team has polled lawmakers on this issue for every national election held since then.
The finding reflects the mauling the ruling Liberal Democratic Party received at the hands of the opposition Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) in the July 29 Upper House election.
The survey found that only 48 percent of the newly elected Diet members favor constitutional amendment, a pet project of unpopular Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
The survey was conducted from late May to July, covering those planning to run, members whose seats were not contested and those who planned to retire after the election.
The issue of constitutional amendment is controversial because of moves to revise war-renouncing Article 9 so that Japan can exercise the right to collective self-defense.
The survey showed that 26 percent of newly elected Upper House lawmakers are in favor of revising Article 9, while 54 percent are not.
For the Upper House as a whole, including those whose seats were not contested last month, those in favor of revision of Article 9 stood at 31 percent, while 50 percent were opposed.
The Constitution has not been altered since it was promulgated in 1947.
Under Article 96 of the Constitution, both Diet chambers must have at least two-thirds support to hold a national referendum on amending the Constitution.
Abe, now one of Japan's least popular postwar leaders, has vowed to hold a national referendum on the issue in 2010. The national referendum law, which was passed in May, will go into force in 2010. Bills to amend the Constitution cannot be submitted before then.
As the 121 new Upper House members will each serve a six-year term, they will still be in office if the issue of constitutional amendment comes to a head.
Despite the LDP's historic defeat in the Upper House election, Abe remains determined to achieve that goal.
But even within the LDP, there is growing skepticism about Abe's stance.
"He's got his priorities wrong. (An amendment) is not what the public wants now," a senior LDP member said.
Among newly elected Upper House members, 48 percent said they thought the Constitution "should be amended" or "if faced with a choice, I would opt for an amendment."
However, 31 percent said it "should not be amended" or "if faced with a choice, I would opt for not changing it."
In comparison, 71 percent of all House members after the 2004 Upper House election supported constitutional amendment.
Among Upper House members elected in July, 91 percent of LDP and 67 percent of its junior coalition partner New Komeito support change. In Minshuto, now the largest party in the Upper House, 41 percent said they were against a revision, exceeding the 29 percent who are in favor.
All those elected on tickets of the Japanese Communist Party, the Social Democratic Party and New Party Nippon said the Constitution "should not be amended."
It was the first time that less than 40 percent of Minshuto members were supportive of a change.(IHT/Asahi: August 8,2007)
-- Yoshie