[lbo-talk] CommonDreams 8/20/07: "Save subprime borrowers, not bloated bankers" by Dean Baker

Tim Francis-Wright tim at francis-wright.com
Wed Aug 22 08:44:39 PDT 2007


Jordan Hayes wrote:
> Let's check that math a little. Here's a few comparables:
>
> http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/402050036.html = $2300/mo
> http://dianeverducci.idxre.com/idx/detail.cfm?cid=251&bid=1&pid=40272718
> = $575k
>
>
> $575k is $115k down (presume 20%) and a 30yr 6.25% mortgage for $460k is
> $2833/mo of which about $28,500 in the first year is interest. 1.3% is
> about right for Berkeley taxes, so that's about $7500/yr. That makes a
> $36k deduction, which is about a $12k tax break (presume $100k income).
> Final tally: about $2000/mo. That presumes you have the $115k down and
> don't mind making "principal payments" (which has a zero sum impact on
> equity). If you finance the whole thing (good luck in this
> environment), the interest is more like $35,700/yr giving you an $14.5k
> tax break (on $43,200 deduction) or a net of $2400/mo.
>
> There's lots of things in here that I don't account for: maintenance,
> for one. But: buying in the Bay Area is still competitive with rents.

Really?

A $36,000 deduction on $100,000 of taxable income is worth $12,000 only for those who are married filing separately. Otherwise, the marginal rates are 28% for single filers and 25% for everyone else. To get to the 33% bracket for married filing jointly, taxable income would need to be $188,450; to get there filing singly, taxable income would need to be $154,800. (These are for taxable income; for adjusted gross income, the marginal rates are lower. And the alt min tax would limit marginal rates to 26% at most.)

If we assume a 28% marginal rate and we assume that our renter were already itemizing deductions (or had enough deductions so that the standard deduction versus itemizing were a wash), then the tax benefit of the property taxes and mortgage interest would be $36,000 * 28% = $10,080, versus outlays of $34,000 for mortgage payments and $7,500 for RE taxes. Even without property insurance, we get $41,500 per year or about $2,600 per month. That's $600 more per month than renting.

But remember that the buyer put $115,000 down. If the renter had that kind of cash lying around, she could park it in short-term investments and earn 5% interest (be sure not to buy CDOs, of course). That's $5,750 per year even without compounding--subtracting $1,610 for federal taxes and $385 for state taxes (9.3% less the federal deduction) leaves $3,750 as the annual opportunity cost, or just over $300 per month.

So, for someone with roughly $100,000 in taxable income, in your example, buying is $900 more expensive than renting. I would not call that competitive unless you think the Devil Rays are competitive with the Yankees and Red Sox.

--tim francis-wright



More information about the lbo-talk mailing list