On Thu Dec 27 10:42:31 PST 2007, John Adams wrote:
> What do you think this assassination is going to bring on?
Since everyone else is talking lip of the volcano, I'm going to take a contrarian view, just for the sake of discussion. I think the most likely next moves in the realm of high politics will actually be a slight advance in the right direction for Pakistan, towards getting rid of Musharref and renovating the PPP.
I think the US will now support Aitzaz Ahsan. He is most famous over the last year as the most prominent leader in the lawyer's movement. He represented the Chief Justice in court and got him released. He is also a high official of the PPP (he was interior minister in a previous Bhutto government) and probably the most popular guy both inside the party and out because he was adamantly against the Bhutto-Musharef deal from the beginning and never wavered. He was already "interviewed" in Washington last month and seemed to get a very good reception. He had nothing but good press in the US (which I assume would have slagged him if the government officials had indicated so) and he placed a very prominent Op Ed in the NYT. The main problems with appointing him was that Bhutto didn't like him at all, and liked him less after this treatment marked him as a serious rival. And then of course there was Musharref -- elevating this guy was impossible if the US was keeping Mush.
But the US would like to get rid of Mush. At this point his unpopularity is clearly a huge minus. This is Imperial SOP for the US and especially in Pakistan: we use them up and throw 'em away (not that they don't deserve the throwing away part). The key barrier to this was that Mush controlled the army. That's now been taken care of. The only element in the Bhutto/Mushareff deal that worked was getting him to take off his uniform and appoint a new chief of the army, General Ashfaq Kiyani.
Right after Mushareff declared emergency and threw out the supreme court and arrested all the lawyers, Negroponte came to visit, ostensibly to register his very mild public protest, but perhaps to indicate that the bottom line that the US demanded was at least that Mush become a civilian; at any rate, that is the only part of the deal he kept. And on that same visit, when Kiyani was still in waiting as the vice chief of the Army Staff Negroponte had three meetings with Kiyani to one with Musharref. A couple of days later, CENTCOM Admiral Fallon showed up to meet with Kiyani. I assume from the purely good coverage Ashfaq Kiyani got in the US press, both liked him. (Just for the record, Fallon seems fairly sensible as CENTCOMs go. FWIW, he's been the most prominent person in a position of power fighting publicly against the idea of bombing Iran).
So that looks like the logical next move, one way or another: an election (in conjunction with other maneuvers in law and perhaps outside it) that elevates Aitzaz and dismisses Mushareff, with the power of the army now in the control Kiyani. You never know until they are appointed, but both of them seem like they'd be a step forward. The elevation of Aitzaz would instantly make the PPP more democratic by replacing the chairperson for life with someone who isn't part of a dynastic family. It would also marrying the party to what is one of the most lively secular popular moments Pakistan has had in decades. And on the other hand, from what little we know from the fawning coverage, Kiyani doesn't seem to have thus far exhibited any signs of meglomania; he seems distinguished in fact by his desire to stay out of politics.
So if all that happened, it looks on its face like it would actually be a beetle leg forward for this long suffering country. It's too bad that path there goes through murder and riot.
And of course, we might just get the murder and riot and not get any of this. But I think of all the many possible scenarios, this is the most likely. Although maybe it's likely in a plurality of the votes sense, and not in a better than 50/50 chance sense.
Michael