[It's a small poll (400 people) with a huge margin of error
relative to the numbers, but I find the idea of an Edwards surge
cheering, so I'm counting it :o)
[Note also an IRV-like feature of the Iowa caucuses: every candidate
who gets under 15% gets rolled over to the voters' second choices, and
Edwards is by far the most popular second choice among voters for
candidates who will most likely get the chop. Counting likely second
votes gives him a significant hypothetical imaginary lead :o)
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/23940.html
Sunday, December 30, 2007
McClatchy Newspapers
Edwards surges, Huckabee's bubble bursts
By Steven Thomma
DES MOINES, Iowa -- John Edwards has clawed his way into contention to
win Iowa's caucuses on Thursday in the first vote for the Democratic
presidential nomination, gaining strength even as rivals Hillary
Clinton and Barack Obama have lost ground, according to a new
McClatchy-MSNBC poll.
At the same time, Mitt Romney has regained the lead among Iowa
Republicans as Mike Huckabee has lost momentum and support, even among
the evangelical Christians who had propelled him into the top spot just
weeks ago.
Taken together, this first poll in Iowa since campaigning resumed after
a Christmas break showed a dead-heat contest between the three leading
Democratic candidates and a volatile clash between the two top
Republican rivals here.
On the Democratic side, the race is about as close as it can get, but
keep an eye on Edwards, said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling &
Research, which conducted the survey. Edwards has really moved up since
our last poll. Obama and Clinton have each slipped a little bit.
The new survey, taken Dec. 26-28, came three weeks after the initial
Dec. 3-6 poll.
On the Republican side, Coker said, Romney has rebounded and the
Huckabee bubble may have burst.
Last time, Huckabee was getting all the good press and nobody had put
him under any scrutiny. ... Now hes under the spotlight, and hes
started to wilt a little.
Among Democrats:
* Former Sen. Edwards of North Carolina has the support of 24
percent;
* Sen. Clinton of New York has 23 percent;
* Sen. Obama of Illinois has 22 percent;
* Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico has 12 percent;
* Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware has 8 percent;
* Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut has 2 percent;
* Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio has 1 percent.
* Undecided: 8 percent.
One in five Iowa Democrats say they could still change their minds. The
poll's margin of error was plus or minus five percentage points.
While the survey shows a virtual statistical tie, it also shows Edwards
with some momentum heading into the final days. He's gained 3
percentage points since McClatchy-MSNBC polled Iowa before the
holidays, while Clinton lost 4 points and Obama lost 3 points.
Also gaining were Richardson and Biden, each picking up 3 points.
The second tier is particularly important in Iowas Democratic caucuses,
where a candidate can win delegates only if they register at least 15
percent support in each town hall-like precinct meeting. Voters whose
candidates dont make that threshold can support someone else.
As of now, that appears to help Edwards.
If all second-tier Democratic candidates fall short and their
supporters switch to other candidates, Edwards gains the most, rolling
up a clear lead at 33 percent to 26 percent each for Clinton and Obama.
Edwards, pushing a people-versus-the powerful message, owes his gains
to voters looking for a general election winner, someone who agrees
with them on the issues, and those who rank Iraq their top concern. Key
demographic slices for him include men and union members.
Of note: more Iowa Democrats have a favorable impression of him -- and
fewer have an unfavorable impression of him -- than any other
candidate.
Clinton owes her solid standing to strong support from women, voters
over age 50, and Democrats who rank health care as their top issue and
experience as the most important personal characteristic.
A warning sign: One in five Iowa Democrats have an unfavorable opinion
of her, and she ranks low among voters looking for honesty and change.
Obama has the edge among young voters under 30, those looking for a new
approach to politics, and honesty. His challenge: low support among
those valuing experience most, and convincing people he can win.
Among Republicans:
* Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney has 27 percent;
* Former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee has 23 percent;
* Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has 14 percent;
* Sen. John McCain of Arizona has 13 percent;
* Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has 5 percent;
* Rep. Ron Paul of Texas has 5 percent;
* Rep. Duncan Hunter of California has 1 percent.
* Undecided: 12 percent.
One in three Iowa Republicans say they could still change their minds.
No one knows that better than Huckabee, who surged into the lead three
weeks ago and now has lost it just as quickly. Huckabees support
dropped 8 percentage points since the last McClatchy/MSNBC poll Dec.
3-6.
A major reason why is that hes come under sharp criticism from rivals
such as Romney, been blistered as a tax raiser in a $500,000 ad
campaign aired by the anti-tax group Club For Growth, and faced new
scrutiny by the media of his Arkansas record on such issues as pardons.
He still ranks tops among Iowa Republicans who rank values and family
issues their top concerns. But while the ordained Baptist preacher
still leads among the states influential evangelical Christians, hes
lost 8 points among them.
Romney, who had led in the state for months before dropping to second
place, regained 7 points since early December.
Iowa Republicans gave him their highest favorable rating, and he ranked
first among GOP voters looking for experience, leadership and the
ability to win in November. He also led among voters who ranked
immigration, taxes or terrorism their top concerns.
A key gain: He now has the support of 27 percent of the states
evangelical Christian Republicans, up sharply from 8 percent several
weeks ago. Concerns about his Mormon faith appear to have ebbed.
One warning sign for Romney: one-third of his supporters say they still
could defect to a rival, while only 22 percent of Huckabee's backers
say that.
COMPLETE POLL RESULTS
Download the surveys in PDF format:
HOW WE POLL