[lbo-talk] Russia Considers Cooperating with Iran to Sell Natural Gas

Peter Lavelle untimely_thoughts at yahoo.com
Fri Feb 2 09:05:30 PST 2007


This is not in the cards.

Why?

1. Russia at this time will not surrender its energy independence.

2. Any gas cartel is bound to cheat - just like OPEC

3. Gas contracts are long term, not like oil (another reason why cheating will happen)

4. Russian domestic gas prices are really low ($47 per thousand cubic meters v the European price of $230-260 ptcm. This will change by 2011-2015). Why would any cartel underwrite Russia and at forego profits in the mean time?

5. Until LNG becomes the norm (not for a while), gas transit is defined by existing pipelines. Building pipelines costs a lot and takes a while.

So, everyone cool their heels. A gas cartel is great political talk. But the economics of such an idea is way off.....

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