Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will confront a paradoxical question when she arrives this weekend in the Middle East: Is peace among Palestinians bad for potential peace with Israel?
Ms. Rice's trip to Israel comes as the two main Palestinian factions -- the Islamist militant group Hamas and the Fatah party of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas -- are trying to cement a Saudi-brokered unity government. Their aim is to stanch the recent bloodshed between them and to win the financial backing of the outside world.
The budding political alliance between Hamas -- which refuses to recognize Israel's existence or to renounce the use of violence -- and Fatah has thrown a wrench into Ms. Rice's plans to start peace talks between Mr. Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Until a week ago, when Saudi Arabia jumped in to broker a settlement between the two factions, the Bush administration was arguing that the time was ripe to start talking about a future Palestinian state.
Ms. Rice is sticking to her plans to hold three-way talks Monday with Israeli and Palestinian officials. "You can't wait for the perfect circumstances," she told reporters yesterday on the eve of her trip, adding that it would be a mistake not to keep ties strong with Mr. Abbas and "take advantage of his commitment" to eventual peace with Israel.
Skeptics, including some Israeli officials, are wondering if Ms. Rice is wise to proceed on this trip, especially when the Palestinian political scene is in such turmoil. "We could use some time to sit back and reassess where we are right now," said one Israeli official.
The U.S. itself is sending mixed signals over whether it may be willing to interact with a unity government led by Hamas. Ms. Rice said the U.S. wouldn't take a position on this question until the new government is formed, but U.S. officials in Israel have told the Palestinians that the U.S. would shun the government if it doesn't embrace Israel, renounce violence and agree to abide by previous international peace accords.
Ms. Rice's strategy in the past year has been to embolden Mr. Abbas and his secular Fatah movement, politically and militarily, believing that would force Hamas to yield to better terms for a unity government. Street battles raged between Fatah and Hamas, claiming scores of lives from within the leadership ranks of the warring factions and among Palestinian civilians.
That strategy has apparently failed, as the deal brokered by Saudi Arabia at Mecca last week would seem to require Mr. Abbas and the other U.S.-backed moderates to move closer to the Islamists -- not vice versa.
The Saudi deal, if it holds, also has thrown into question a core premise underlying the U.S.'s regional strategy over recent months. Ms. Rice has portrayed the moment as ripe for progress on the Israeli-Palestinian peace front largely because Sunni Arab states like Saudi Arabia appeared eager to help broker a deal. The U.S. logic was that Iran, and its aid to militant groups like Hamas, had become a greater threat to many Arab states than Israel.
The Saudis, by summoning both Hamas and Fatah to Mecca last week and then offering them $1 billion in aid, have made clear that their main desire is to preserve intra-Palestinian comity while weaning Hamas away from Iran.
Ms. Rice yesterday said she approved of the Saudi effort to stop the fighting. "We want calm between the Palestinians as well," she said.
The U.S. finds itself in a delicate place, facing the possibility it soon could be leading the opposition against a unity government that the Saudis helped put together. Arab states are eager to see the Palestinians end their internecine fighting. If Ms. Rice comes out strongly against the new government, she could create an even-greater backlash against the U.S. across the region and beyond. The U.S. and Israel would largely be alone if they tried hard to scuttle it.
After her talks with Israeli and Palestinian officials, Ms. Rice is scheduled to meet with an assortment of Arab ministers in Jordan before flying Tuesday to Berlin. Talks there, with representatives from the European Union, Russia and the United Nations, will be just as crucial, because the U.S. may have to push hard to keep in place the current international freeze on aid to the Palestinians if a new unity government is formed.