> On 1/3/07, Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> wrote:
>>
>> On Jan 3, 2007, at 8:43 PM, Yoshie Furuhashi wrote:
>>
>> > the Shi'i-Sunni bloc that Sadr's trying to build
>>
>> What are the prospects for that after Saddam's hangmen were chanting
>> "Moktada!"
>
> Shi'is and Sunnis need the kind of leaders who are capable of letting
> bygones be bygones and unite with enemies who killed their own mothers
> and fathers. That's the precondition for any strategic or even
> tactical unity between the Sadr bloc and former Ba'athists.
============================
I doubt there is any real possibility of unity between the Shias and Sunnis
aimed at the US military, as once seemed possible after the battle of Najaf
in 2004 and before the bombing of the al Askari mosque in Samarra last
February. There has been too much sectarian blood spilled since, and,
whatever he may once have sought or still does, Sadr has had to adapt to the
pressures of his Shia base and the Mahdi Army. The unity being talked of now
is the unity of the Shia and Sunni politicians aimed at the Sunni and Shia
militias. To this end, the US and its closest collaborators in both
communities have been engaged in strenuous efforts to bring the more radical
Shia and Sunni political figures like Sadr and reprentatives from the
Association of Muslim Scholars into the fold in the hope they will be able
to use their influence to effect the disarmament of the rival militias.
Michael P. posted an item this morning reporting on US back channel
initiatives to Sunni politicians with close ties to the Sunni resistance.
The issue, as always, is what will Sadr, the country's most important political leader do? He is being primed to play an analagous role to that played by Gerry Adams in Northern Ireland, but the situation in Iraq is much more dire. The IRA agreed to surrender its weapons after a much longer period of civil strife, when it was apparent to the each side that they had reached the an exhausted stalemate. In Iraq, it looks like things are just winding up, and I agree with Doug's comment that the Saddam lynching has widened the gulf still further. These bridging efforts by the Americans and the Iraqi politicians keep collapsing, and it is only if Sadr decides to cooperate in disarming the Mahdi Army that they would have some chance of success. But this would almost certainly require the prior destruction of the Sunni militias, which seems to the (fanciful) thinking behind a further "surge" of US troops.