Forbes Russia No. 1 January 8, 2007 A REAL OLIGARCHY An interview with political analyst Anatol Lieven
Anatol Lieven, senior research fellow at the New America Foundation and author of a number of books about Russia and the CIS, maintains that we shouldn't expect any surprises: Russia's next president will be appointed by the current president. Last year, Lieven's article about President Vladimir Putin in "The Financial Times" generated a great deal of discussion.
Question: The presidential election of 2008 - do you think it really will be the most important event of the next two years, or is everything essentially predetermined, with the election itself being only a "technicality"?
Anatol Lieven: The election itself will be managed by the current authorities, of course. But there are two big questions here. First: will the current administration be united in backing the successor named by Putin? How will the unsuccessful successor-candidate react to Putin's decision? On the other hand, Russia has plenty of money and other opportunities to sweeten the bitter pill for the unsuccessful candidate, as compensation for his failure. For example, the loser could hardly object to an appointment as head of Gazprom. In theory, of course, we might imagine a situation where the rejected successor-candidate starts playing a game of his own, seeking to become an independent candidate without the backing of the bureaucratic system. In reality, however, I think the rejected candidate will loyally accept Putin's decision - because, as I said, the elite has a lot of money to provide him with adequate compensation for his failure.
Question: Will the successor be able to match Putin's popularity levels and continue Putin's policies and reforms?
Anatol Lieven: I think the policy course will remain unchanged, on the whole, but it will be influenced by many factors.
Question: Whom do you see as the most likely presidential candidate?
Anatol Lieven: To be honest, I have no idea. Putin appears to be choosing between Dmitri Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov - but who can be sure what his eventual choice will be? He might do a Yeltsin and present someone entirely unexpected. I'm only certain of one thing: it will be a person from within the current authorities.
Question: So you don't think there's any possibility of the election being won by an independent candidate, someone not connected with the current authorities?
Anatol Lieven: No, I don't. Such candidates do participate in elections in the United States and Britain, for example. They don't expect to win, but they get an opportunity to promote their ideas via the media. That's important, especially in present-day Russia. So it is worthwhile for independents to participate in Russia's presidential election, but their chances of winning would be about the same as Ralph Nader's chances of becoming president of the United States.
Question: If there's no chance of an independent winning the election, should we expect the power-struggle within the current authorities to escalate to a point where it has an impact on the whole country?
Anatol Lieven: It's hard for me to judge - I'm not within the authorities. All I can say is this: the system which has taken shape in the Putin era is much more like an oligarchy than the Yeltsin-era system. In the Yeltsin era, it was more a case of feudal lords, barons, magnates - all fighting amongst themselves. But the Putin-era elite could be more justifiably described as an oligarchy in the classic sense. It is united by a common background in the security services; many of its members are also linked by marriage and family ties. What's more, they have a common ideology: a mixture of free-market ideas and Russian great-power nationalism. And they're patriots, certainly - they're dedicated to the idea of a strong, well-defended Russia.
And whom would the West like to see as president of Russia, ideally? The West would like to see Yegor Gaidar become president. In general, the West is obsessed with the idea that the Russian government ought to consist of liberals - and the West has a completely stupid attitude to Russia's ordinary citizens. But this won't happen, of course. For example, I get the impression that most Western investors would prefer it if Putin stayed on as president. On the whole, they approve of what he's doing, though some are displeased by what's happening in the oil and gas sector. But investors want stability. Most of them would prefere someone who's very similar to Putin, if not Putin himself.
Translated by Elena Leonova
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