> Dubya, Cheney and Rummy have damned near broken the Army and the Marines.
> It's hard to envision an invasion of Iran irrespective of whether there's
> a surge in jingoism.
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There are these military considerations, although the reliance would be on
air and naval strikes rather than a land invasion. I think the real
inhibition, though, is economic -the likelihood it would send the oil price
spiraling towards triple digits until a follow-on depression brought it back
down. Gas pump lineups would offer the best opportunities for antiwar
organizing since the Vietnam war.
We're not that only ones who understand this. We shouldn't therefore exclude the possibility that all the noise coming from the Bush administration may be mainly designed to remind Iran and reassure its Sunni political allies inside and outside Iraq that the US would still be capable of projecting its power in the region even if it withdrew its troops.
The US ruling class, including that part of it which supports the Democratic party, is above all worried that a withdrawal would embolden its opponents in the Middle East and is searching for ways to manage it so it doesn't send that signal. The US won't find a way to disguise the debacle even if it declares victory in defeat, but I doubt the fear of "losing" Iraq is such that it will cause it to launch a much larger and more destabilizing regional war. I wouldn't bet either that it will lose access to Iraq and its oil even if it pulls the bulk of its forces out.