On Jan 18, 2007, at 11:32 PM, Wojtek Sokolowski wrote:
> To play devil's advocate, one can argue that the
> price of assets is a reflection of the anticipated
> future return that the asset will generate, so it is
> the anticipated furure demand (on the assumption that
> demand for an asset is driven by its yield) that is
> driving the price, not vice versa, pretty much in the
> same way as the current demand increase pushes current
> prices upward.
What do you think drives anticipations of the future, if not the recent past? There's nothing to make people think the price of an asset at time t+1 will be greater than the price at time t than the fact that the price at time t is greater than that at t-1, and t-1>t-2, etc.
Doug