----- Original Message ----- From: "Marvin Gandall" <marvgandall at videotron.ca>
So perhaps there is something to the speculation by yourself and others about US/Saudi price manipulation, though I'm still inclined to see it as a case of oil conditions coinciding with the foreign policy objectives of the Bush administration until shown otherwise. The administration of course is not loath to take credit for the price decline, as is evident in the coy refusal of unnamed "officials" above to deny the rumours.
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One of the problems with the hypothesis is that it is difficult to square with the fact that the Saudi elite have at least a considerable medium term interest in reversing the rather substantial decline in the standard of living of a large segment of their population, especially young people, as the intergenerational hand off of titles/privileges occurs. That means the high oil prices are an enormous boon to helping them ward off potential domestic unrest. It's also difficult to square with what we know about how oil is traded; capacity utilization isn't always the magic wand it's made out to be...Dick Cheney and his aides simply aren't the most brilliant geopolitical strategists in US history.
Ian