The Islamist left aren't happy about privatization in general. Those whom the press have taken to call "traditional conservatives," like Ali Khamenei and a majority of the Guardian Council, have generally been cautious about it, too, at least till now -- they don't like disruptions, and radical privatizations have a potential to cause many. The Rafsanjani, reformist, and younger, technocratic conservatives are keener on that, but even they are too cautious from Washington's POV. International sanctions would have contradictory impacts on Iran's power elite's decision making: on one hand, sanctions would motivate them to sweeten offers to foreign investors; on the other hand, foreign investors would be less inclined to take them.
> Many US-friendly states have national oil companies, notably Saudi Arabia
> and the Gulf States,
Yes, but there are nationalizations, and there are nationalizations. I'd be very much interested in a good comparative study of oil nationalizations.
That said, even Saudi nationalization presents a much less than ideal investment climate from capital's POV. The PNAC crowd probably wanted to change that, though the Iraq War has derailed their project on that front.
> Cole is probably thinking more in terms of changes in Iranian foreign policy
> which would see it abandon its support of Islamist opposition movements
> against US client regimes in the Middle East - a move which would help
> resolve tensions over its nuclear program, as well.
>
> A turn of this sort in Iranian foreign policy would likely lead to an end to
> US sanctions and a resumption of US investment in and trade with Iran, which
> could include joint ventures in the oil industry and other sectors which
> fall short of privatization.
IMHO, Tehran has been too helpful, especially in Iraq, but Washington doesn't want to let it help, for even the biggest sellout deal that Tehran can come up with still compels a big change in the US, Israeli, and Saudi policies. Besides, any policy change that Tehran makes now will be subject to winds of political change in the future, as long as Iran remains an independent republic, and the US, Israeli, and Saudi power elites do not trust the Iranian people (historically far more prone to revolts and revolutions than anyone else in the Middle East) in general, not just Iran's current power elite. Washington's policy makes satire like this almost superfluous:
<http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16888625/site/newsweek/> Satire: Bush Warns Iran Not to Be Helpful President Bush warns Iran not to be helpful on Iraq. WEB-EXCLUSIVE SATIRE By Andy Borowitz Special to Newsweek Updated: 12:41 p.m. ET Jan 30, 2007
Jan. 30, 2007 - Amid reports that Iran is prepared to offer Iraq help with reconstruction and other forms of economic aid, President George W. Bush warned Tehran today that any helpfulness on its part would be met with "swift retribution" from the United States.
Speaking from the White House, Bush warned Iran not to entertain any thoughts of being helpful, vowing, "No good deed will go unpunished." The president also issued a stern ultimatum directly to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, warning him against "future provocative offers of help."
"Iran can continue down this dangerous path of helpfulness, or it can resume its role as an international pariah," Bush said. "The choice is clear."
The president appeared bent on isolating Iran to punish it for its threatened acts of helpfulness, even naming it to what he called "The Axis of Constructiveness."
In Tehran, Ahmadinejad seemed almost emboldened by Bush's remarks, even taunting the U.S. president with threats of his own: "Iran will continue to be as helpful as it wants to be, and no one can make us stop."
On Capitol Hill, congressional leaders worried that Bush's options for reining in Iran's recklessly constructive behavior may be limited. "President Bush might like to threaten Iran with military action if they persist in being helpful," said Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware. "But with the U.S. military stretched thin in Iraq, Iran probably feels that it can be helpful with impunity." -- Yoshie <http://montages.blogspot.com/> <http://mrzine.org> <http://monthlyreview.org/>