Inside Iran - Graham E. Fuller
The Hizballah-Iran Connection: Model for Sunni Resistance
Graham E. Fuller is a former vice chair of the National Intelligence Council at the Central Intelligence Agency. He is coauthor of The Arab Shi'a: The Forgotten Muslims (2000) with Rend Rahim Francke and author of The Future of Political Islam (2004).
Iran dominates conversations on the Middle East as of late, lying at the center of a spider web of pressing issues: Tehran's influence in Baghdad, its nuclear policies, and a growing fear of an emerging "Shi'ite axis" that is purported to link Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Hizballah in Lebanon. The image is designed to stir geopolitical blood and has prompted new debate in Washington and the Middle East about how to treat the nature of this "threat."
The Shi'ite tail seems to be wagging the Sunni dog once again. After all, only about 15 percent of Muslims worldwide are Shi'a, making this group clearly outnumbered by its Sunni counterparts. Only in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Bahrain do Shi'a constitute a majority or plurality of the populace. Yet, two of Middle East's most active and outspoken Islamic forces, the Iranian regime and Hizballah, are Shi'a phenomena.
The summer 2006 war between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon has recharged an ideological debate over the geopolitical relationship between Iran and Hizballah. During the Lebanese conflict, talk emerged of an Iran-Hizballah "axis" and even a "proxy war" in Lebanon between the United States and Iran. In the eyes of the Bush administration and much of the Israeli establishment, Hizballah is a dangerous Iranian creation that promotes Tehran's radical ambitions and forms an integral part of a dangerous and growing Shi'a bloc across the region. This view is also shared by the leadership of embattled and autocratic Sunni regimes in Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia as well as by some Persian Gulf state rulers. Meanwhile, next door in Iraq, the Shi'a have electorally commandeered the formerly Sunni-run government in the wake of Saddam Hussein's ouster. Sunni-Shi'a sectarian violence is wracking the nation, particularly Baghdad.
Hizballah is not accumulating power in a Lebanese vacuum but rather in an environment of growing violence across much of the Middle East over several decades, sharply intensified since September 11, 2001, and the beginning of the U.S. global war on terrorism. The group's Iranian connection is profound and well established, but this link is not indicative of a burgeoning sectarian axis reinvigorated by the new power that the Shi'a have gained in Iraq. What is certain, however, is that Hizballah's growing power, although solidly rooted in Lebanon, reflects a broad intensification of resistance to the status quo throughout the Middle East. Invoking a Shi'ite axis may be a good scare tactic, but the phenomenon really signifies political change that is broader than sectarianism.
Download the full article, available in Adobe Acrobat [.pdf] format. <http://www.twq.com/07winter/docs/07winter_fuller.pdf> -- Yoshie