Bloomberg.com
Pakistan Siege May Fuel Rift With Religious Parties (Update2)
By Naween A. Mangi
July 12 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan's military assault on the Red Mosque in the capital, Islamabad, may widen President Pervez Musharraf's rift with religious parties, fueling the strongest opposition to his rule since he led a military coup in 1999.
The army operation that ended a weeklong standoff with rebels yesterday left 10 soldiers and at least 50 militants dead, including the mosque's deputy chief cleric, Maulana Abdul Rashid Ghazi. The army said today 75 bodies were found after the raid, with 19 so badly burned it hasn't been determined whether they are those of women and children, Agence France-Presse reported.
``The bottom line is that Musharraf's downward trajectory continues,'' Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center in Washington, said in an interview by e-mail on July 10. ``His ties with the religious parties will be further frayed, and he will win no kudos from civil society.''
The siege has increased pressure on Musharraf, 64, who remains head of the army. He has been criticized by Pakistan's Islamic groups for supporting the U.S.-led war on terrorism since 2001 and opposition parties demanded on July 8 that he resign after his March decision to oust Pakistan's top judge sparked nationwide demonstrations.
``Musharraf was in a lose-lose situation,'' Krepon said. ``He let this problem fester, so dealing with it belatedly does not make him look strong and purposeful.''
Religious Court
The standoff at the mosque began in April when Chief Cleric Maulana Muhammad Abdul Aziz established a religious court to bring the capital under Islamic law. Musharraf is still dealing with street protests that erupted after he suspended Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry over allegations of misusing his authority.
``Musharraf and his government are not out of the woods,'' Teresita Schaffer, director of the South Asia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, wrote in a July 5 report. ``The showdown at the Red Mosque was only one of the dramas affecting the government's future.''
Delegates from 37 opposition parties, who met in London, demanded Musharraf resign and said their lawmakers will quit Parliament if he seeks a second term in office before general elections are held by January. The opposition, which controls one third of Parliament, also wants Musharraf to quit as army chief.
`Legitimacy Crisis'
The operation ``won't make a significant difference in increasing Musharraf's popularity, as his legitimacy crisis is caused by a multitude of factors including the removal of the chief justice and the legacy of dictatorship,'' said Ishtiaq Ahmed, associate professor of international relations at Quaid-i- Azam University in Islamabad.
Pakistan has been governed by the army for more than half its years since independence in 1947. The longest democratic rule was between 1988, when Benazir Bhutto was elected prime minister, and 1999 when Nawaz Sharif was overthrown by Musharraf.
Musharraf has stressed that Pakistan must follow a path of moderation. He has boosted economic growth to an annual average of 7.5 percent in the world's second-largest Muslim nation in an effort to reduce the threat of terrorism and extremism.
Pakistan's credit rating outlook was cut on July 10 by Standard & Poor's to ``stable'' from ``positive'' on concern security is worsening in the South Asian nation.
``Pakistan's political and security situation has deteriorated markedly in recent months,'' S&P said in an e-mailed statement.
Taliban, Al-Qaeda
Musharraf may now face demonstrations from religious parties and militants in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. He sent the army into the northwestern region in 2003 to control Taliban and al-Qaeda terrorists crossing the frontier.
A purported videotaped statement from al-Qaeda's No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, yesterday condemned the mosque raid as a ``dirty, despicable crime'' that could only be ``washed away by repentance or blood.'' Zawahiri told Pakistani Muslims their ``salvation is only through jihad,'' or holy war, according to the Virginia-based IntelCenter.
There may be ``retaliatory attacks against Pakistan's military in the North West Frontier Province and there could be some suicide bombings,'' said Lisa Curtis, senior research fellow on South Asia at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. ``The only way to avoid a repeat of the Red Mosque is to go on the offense against extremists.''
The Mutahidda Majlis-e-Amal, an alliance of six religious parties, called for three days of mourning starting July 11 to protest the army operation at the mosque, said Liaquat Baloch, a spokesman for the group. Demonstrations were held in Islamabad and Peshawar yesterday where protesters chanted slogans against the government.
Battling Extremists
``If the extremists seek vengeance in a substantial way, Musharraf will, I think, feel compelled to move against them with much more vigor than before,'' said Dennis Kux, senior policy fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. ``If the extremists hold their fire, I expect the government will do so as well. Unless Musharraf truly reverses policy, the most natural course will be to revert to his earlier form of speaking against rather than acting against the Islamists.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Naween Mangi in Karachi, Pakistan, at nmangi1 at bloomberg.net . Last Updated: July 12, 2007 08:05 EDT
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