[lbo-talk] The Long March From Yenan to Barclays

Marvin Gandall marvgandall at videotron.ca
Wed Jul 25 15:20:39 PDT 2007


Doug wrote:
>
> On Jul 25, 2007, at 1:11 PM, bhandari at berkeley.edu wrote:
>
>> Thus this question: will this export of capital prove a transient,
>> periodic phenomenon to be interrupted sooner or later and replaced
>> by the
>> import of US goods as part of an even bigger domestic Chinese
>> investment
>> boom?
>
> What goods? Aside from aircraft, what capital equipment would the
> U.S. export to China?...
========================================

I don't think this is so, Doug.

According to US International Trade Commission statistics, China is the US's fastest growing export market and is expected to overtake Japan as it's third largest this year. Despite its yawning and widely-publicized trade deficit with China, merchandise exports to China still rose by 187% between 2001-06, from $19b to $55b, a pace far outstripping exports to the US's other major trading partners.

Goods shipped to Canada, the US's largest market across its northern border, were valued at $230b, 40% higher than in 2001. Exports to Mexico on its southern border, its second largest trading partner ($134b), rose by 32%. Stagnant Japan only took an additional 3.5% of goods with a value of $59b. China was ranked the fourth largest US export market, ahead of the UK, Germany, South Korea, the Netherlands, Singapore, and France. In total, the US - still the world's largest producer by output if not employment - exported $1.037 trillion worth of commodities, up 42% over the five year period.

Aerospace products, mainly aircraft and parts, were the second largest component of the export trade to China. The sharpest growth was recorded in computers and other electronics. Rounding out the top five exports were waste and scrap, oilseeds and grain (mainly soybeans), and resins and synthetic rubber and fibers.

The ITC stats were contained in a report issued a couple of weeks ago by the Congressional Research Bureau:

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33536.pdf.

The US is also a big exporter of transportation equipment, chemicals and farm machinery.

It's hard to see how China, with its huge and growing home market, won't continue to be a magnet for US industry and agribusiness, with all of the political implications this will continue to have for China-US relations. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, again in China this week, described the "strategic economic relationship" which exists between the two countries.



More information about the lbo-talk mailing list