The U.S. is going to stay in Iraq until it is forced out by three factors, all of which will take some years to be effective.
1. Continued violent resistance within Iraq, including ability to block regular supplies to permanent bases. 2. Unanimity on the part of Russia, EU, and China that the U.S. must leave. 3. An anti-war movement at home which seriously disrupts ordinary political activity.
The Anti-War movement, therefore, should aim at reaching maximum intensity sometime in 2010.
One of our major tactical concerns over the intervening years will be to prevent internal disruption from Crackpot Realism. That is, as the situation worsens in Iraq, there will be a continued reappearance of more sophisticated forms of the two arguments which most disrupted movement thinking in 2003 and 2004:
(1) The U.S. must repair the damage it has done.
(2) Variations of ABB
The U.S. will of course NEVER repair the damage it has done. And the threat of chaos post-evacuation will never grow less and will probably increase, but this must _not_ be allowed to muffle the central principle of Anti-War organizing: U.S. Out Now! And different leaders in Washington will put forth different strategies, tactics, ands rationales, and will label their strategies "routes to withdrawal" or some variation, but they will Not end the war voluntarily.
Carrol
I'm posting this primarily to quote a couple years from now.