Doug Henwood wrote:
> The Times report seems plausible, doesn't it? It's hard to believe
> Israel would tolerate Hamas in power in Gaza. But after the disaster
> of Lebanon, aren't they at all chastened?
>
> Doug
>
>
I think it is quite plausible, this or in some similar version.
As Israel has almost totally shut the borders of the Gaza Strip, cutting off fuel and gas supplies, any movement of goods, etc., except for--as they claim--food, medicine and electricity, things can only get worse in Gaza, and quickly. It was reported in Ma'an that the price for basic goods is skyrocketing: http://www.maannews.net/en/index.php?opr=ShowDetails&ID=23046
With Barak in place, all that is needed is a significant cross border retaliation with Qassam's, etc. and Israel can use it to move in, with significant backing from the US, EU, etc.
To Marvin...not that things would necessarily go as planned, but perhaps the idea is to escape the mistakes of Lebanon, and for Israel to limit air strikes and instead use enormous numbers of troops to enter into Gaza, engage with the Hamas forces where needed, attempt to mass arrest the major Hamas political figures. And to do it with tacit agreement (and probably more than tacit behind closed doors) of Abbas, Fatah and his Emergency government, not to mention Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia (who have announced full support for Abbas's Emergency Government). Then after the campaign, Israel would 'allow' the Badr Brigades from Jordan and similar Fatah tied groups to move in and take power...something like that.
The question is how much strength the West Bank PA can garner keeping things from blowing up in their cities and villages, while at the same time, Israel's occupation controls would attempt to stop any outbreak of real resistance in the West Bank.
At least, from what I can guess that would be their assumptions. But could they implement it quickly and cleanly, would it spillover into the West Bank (which we are already beginning to see) whether they think that they can prevent it or not, and wouldn't it make Abbas's PA look even more like an Israeli proxy occupation force than it already does?
I don't know, but I have a feeling we will find out.