[lbo-talk] Output Falling in Oil-Rich Mexico, and Politics Get the Blame

Julio Huato juliohuato at gmail.com
Mon Mar 12 10:19:08 PDT 2007


Miles wrote:


> Hubbert used his model in the 1950s to correctly
> predict the peak of U. S. oil production in the 1970s! Economists'
> misconceptions notwithstanding, it turns out you can effectively predict
> the future with a well-specified regression model.

In the 1950s, the pitfalls of time-series regression were barely on the radar. Now, if Hubbert's predictive technology was so good, how come he or his followers didn't use it to take over the world?



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