On Mar 12, 2007, at 3:22 PM, Yoshie Furuhashi wrote:
> On 3/12/07, Julio Huato <juliohuato at gmail.com> wrote:
>> The future is not a replica of the past.
>
> Right. But the question is, will global capitalism stay in business?
> If the answer is yes, it is safe to bet that oil consumption at the
> global level will continue to rise into the foreseeable future: "In
> the IEO2006 reference case, world oil demand grows from 80 million
> barrels per day in 2003 to 98 million barrels per day in 2015 and 118
> million barrels per day in 2030. Demand increases strongly despite
> world oil prices that are 35 percent higher in 2025 than in last
> year's outlook. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for
> the nations of non-OECD Asia, where strong economic growth is
> expected. Non-OECD Asia (including China and India) accounts for 43
> percent of the total increase in world oil use over the projection
> period" ("International Energy Outlook 2006,"
> <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html>).
"By 'uncertain' knowledge, let me explain, I do not mean merely to distinguish what is known for certain from what is only probable. The game of roulette is not subject, in this sense, to uncertainty; nor is the prospect of a victory bond being drawn.... Even the weather is only moderately uncertain. The sense in which I am using the term is that in which the prospect of a European war is uncertain, or the price of copper and the rate of interest twenty years hence, or the obsolescence of a new invention, or the position of private wealth- owners in the social system in 1970. About these matters there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever. We simply do not know."
- John Maynard Keynes, "The General Theory of Employment"