Those who can't match HRC in fundraising early will be soon getting calls from operatives and their own backers to withdraw, I think, but I hope everyone will stay in the race and more will throw their hats in. The more candidates, the better.
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/20/AR2007032001537.html> Candidates Stress Early Fundraising Tallies for First Quarter Could Be Make-or-Break
By Anne E. Kornblut and Chris Cillizza Washington Post Staff Writers Wednesday, March 21, 2007; Page A01
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More than a year and a half before the election, the collective field could match in a single quarter the nearly $100 million that George W. Bush raised during his record-breaking primary effort two presidential cycles ago.
"It's almost a geometric increase," said Michael E. Toner, who left his post as a member of the Federal Election Commission last week.
Campaigns are also aggressively trying to manage expectations, providing low-ball estimates of what they will raise while exaggerating predictions for their opponents. Estimates of what Clinton will raise this quarter range from $15 million (the official prediction of the campaign, but one her own aides privately concede is low) to $50 million (a staggering and probably unrealistic figure).
Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has similarly played down his goals, with aides saying they would be thrilled with a take of $7 million to $12 million this quarter. But there is ample evidence -- such as Obama's raising $1.3 million at a single Hollywood event -- to suggest that he could do better, perhaps hitting $20 million or higher.
One of the great unknowns is how former senator John Edwards (D-N.C.) will fare. Clinton and Obama (as well as Republicans John McCain of Arizona and Sam Brownback of Kansas) must pay at least some attention to their positions in the Senate, but Edwards is unencumbered by a day job and is still riding his popularity as the vice presidential nominee in 2004. He has by all accounts been on a furious, if quiet, fundraising tear, hoping to at least match the $7.4 million he raised in the first quarter of 2003 -- a number that at the time led all contenders and vaulted him into serious contention.
For Edwards and other Democrats seeking to catch up with Clinton and Obama -- such as Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (Conn.), Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.) and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson -- the money flow, or lack thereof, could produce a moment of reckoning. -- Yoshie