[lbo-talk] Southern vs. Northern violence

[Michael McIntyre]

I did some quick checking of homicide rates to see if violence is  
higher in northern or southern cities.  The strange answer, looking  
at raw homicide rates, seems to be that border cities are  
disproportionately bad.
2004 Unadjusted Ranking
1. New Orleans
2. Baltimore
3. Detroit
4. Washington, D.C.
5. St. Louis

What happens, though, if you take out the "five highly  
intercorrelated variables (factor loadings in parentheses): the  
poverty rate (.934), male unemployment rate (.888), % black (.839), %  
female-headed families w/own children under 18 (.928), and median  
family income (-.862)".  (http://www.cjgsu.net/initiatives/ 
HomRates-2005-12-06.htm) The adjusted homicide rates give a very  
surprising ranking. (http://www.cjgsu.net/initiatives/ 
HomRates-2005-12-06-Score.pdf)
1. San Francisco
2. Washington, D.C.
3. New Orleans
4. Baltimore
5. Kansas City

And the safest of 67 cities over 250,000 in population, by either  
adjusted or unadjusted ranking?  El Paso.  Go figure!

Michael McIntyre
http://morbidsymptoms.blogspot.com