--- Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> wrote:
>
> My guess is that a lot of the Russian boom is the
> result of high oil
> prices, amplified by the credit inflows the banker
> suggested. Has
> there been much investment in real industry?
>
> Doug
Ugh. My head hurts. Alcohol is not my friend.
Anyway, I'm not an economist -- the people to talk about this with are Vlad Sobell and William MacDougall over on the Untimely Thoughts list, who are. My general understanding on talking to them is that Russian growth in the present is largely based on domestic consumption, which is exploding, largely in consumer goods. On the other hand, the Kremlin os constantly criticized for just letting the Stabilization Fund accumulate and not investing it in the economy.
But this kind of stuff really has a "boy who cried wolf" quality about it for me. It seems like every few months there is some kind of dire prognosis of catastrophe made about Russia that never happens. A few years ago, there was the "2003 problem." In 2003 all the Soviet-era infrastructure was supposed to have outlived its service life and the country was supposed to have catastrophic breakdowns. This never happened. Then, the arrest of Khodorkovsky and nationalization of Yukos were supposed to be a deathblow to the economy. Never happened. Then there was the "banking crisis" in 2004, when Guta-Bank's collapse was supposed to signal a general meltdown. This never happened either. Then in 2005 Chechnya and environs were supposed to explode, leading to a savage wave of terrorism and carnage. Once again, this never happened.
So pardon my skepticism. ;)
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