[lbo-talk] Running Mixed Economy (was Junkyard dog hits Motown)

Yoshie Furuhashi critical.montages at gmail.com
Thu May 17 08:16:47 PDT 2007


On 5/16/07, Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> wrote:
> In some sense, yeah. I keep worrying that Chavez is going to crash
> and burn, in no small part because PdVSA is going to run into the
> ground. There's a real problem with distributing all the oil profits
> for social development - as wonderful as that should be, you can't
> keep the company going that way. It runs the risk of ending up like
> Pemex. And what about the managers and techies? If they're all
> reactionaries who go on strike or into exile, how can you keep the
> economy running? Inflation in Venez is approaching 20% - that sort of
> thing often comes to a bad end. I hope I'm wrong.

Considerable socialist intellectual energy once went into debating whether the USSR, China, etc. were really socialist; if not, what kind of political economy they had; whether central planning or market socialism is better; etc. But instead of those, the topic that is most worth discussing may be how to run and develop mixed economy while creating socialist culture, since mixed economy is what you'll run in the interim even if you are actually aiming for socialist economy in the end.

As for PDVSA, do the estimates below seem accurate to you?

<http://www.thedialogue.org/publications/2006/winter/arriagada.pdf> Petropolitics in Latin America A Review of Energy Policy and Regional Relations Genaro Arriagada

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Stagnant production: While Venezuela has vast reserves, it has not raised production levels.The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) reports that Venezuela's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 17.9 percent in 2004, a rebound from the severe downturn of 2002 and 2003. Estimates for 2005 set growth at about 9.3 percent. However, ECLAC also adds that "…expected GDP growth will not come from oil production, which has yet to recover to pre-strike levels as a result of insufficient investment. These factors have led Venezuela to produce at levels below OPEC ceilings. Sector strength will depend exclusively on world price increases, as […] capacity for expanded production remains extremely limited." Assessing how much production has fallen is difficult without reliable PDVSA figures. While the company says production has returned to 2000 and 2001 levels -- about 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) -- independent reports estimate that it did not exceed 2.7 million bpd.

Investment: To maintain current output, Venezuela's oil industry requires considerable annual investment, especially in exploration and production. Evidence indicates that PDVSA investment falls significantly short of these minimum levels. PDVSA's plan for 2005-2010 calls for investing $6.3 billion from public sources and an extra $2.5 billion from private sources. While no official figures are available, 2005 estimates indicate that slightly over half the PDVSA target will be reached, less than $3.5 billion. Private investment is also predicted to fall short of the target due to uncertainty about foreign property rights and investment policy. These estimates indicate that oil output will continue to slide or, at best, remain at current levels. PDVSA investment falls short of the investment levels of other state-owned regional oil companies. Estimates show that PEMEX, the state-owned Mexican petroleum company, invested more than twice as much as PDVSA in 2003. The Brazilian state-owned oil company, Petrobras, invested over 150 percent more. It recently announced annual investments of $12 billion through the year 2010 -- more than three times as much as PDVSA. -- Yoshie



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