Doug wrote:.
>> If GM, Ford, and other American carmakers relocate the bulk of their
>> production from Detroit to Shanghai,
>
> We're a long way from that. There's a lot more production in Canada
> and Mexico than there is in China, and that's not likely to change
> imminently. We'll see what Cerberus does with Chrysler though, won't we?
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It will be interesting to see what Cerberus does, particularly as
DaimlerChrysler was in talks with Chinese and other car makers about
producing subcompacts in China for export to the US for the past couple of
years. When the news leaked at the Shanghai auto show in 2005, it deeply
upset the UAW, and Daimler officials were forced to make (unconvincing)
public disclaimers.
China's up-and-coming auto firms Geely, Chery, and Lifan have also announced plans to export into the US market, and if they can avoid Hyundai's early mistakes and the quality as well as price are there, it will be hard for protectionist politicians to keep these away from American motorists.
I don't know how quickly this shift will happen; the takeover by Cerberus, which as a private firm is less subject to public pressure, might move things along. Of course, as you know, it's not only or mostly about using China as an export platform to the more developed countries; the Chinese domestic market is growing rapidly and absorbing a greater share of output from major car producers Volkswagen, GM, Ford,Toyota, Nissan, and Honda. Chrysler is a latecomer to the race.