[lbo-talk] low odds of Iran attack

[Doug Henwood]

The Washington office of ISI - not the Pakistani intelligence agency  
but the research boutique run by Wall Street's favorite economist, Ed  
Hyman - has a piece out today arguing the odds of an attack on Iran  
are very low. Their reasoning: 1) Bush's legacy is tied to Iraq, and  
an attack on Iran would complicate the Iraqi situation enormously, 2)  
such an attack would require huge resources, and the U.S. doesn't  
have a lot of those to spare, and 3) Iran is not close enough to  
nuclear capability to warrant an attack.

Hey, you can trade the likelihood of an attack on Iran just like a  
stock!

<http://www.intrade.com>

Attack by March '08, 18. By end of Dec '08, 50. But these bid-ask  
spreads are wiiiiiide.