[lbo-talk] counting to 200

[Jordan Hayes]

> the standard estimate is that there are about $200 billion in
> mortgage losses, mostly subprime, out there ...

Numbers I have seen:

- Total size of the mortgage market in the US: about $10T
- Percentage of that which is ARM, presumably subject to reset

  now or soon: about 25% ($2.5T)
- Percentage of ARM loans that are "subprime": about 50%

So we're talking about $1.25T of subprime, and losses are going to be 
$200B?

16 cents on the dollar for the whole portfolio?

Put that into perspective: you make a completely bogus $300k loan for a 
bubbilicious house; you're saying after you foreclose you're going to 
get $50k out of it on average?

Huh.

/jordan