[lbo-talk] party & income

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Tue Oct 2 14:54:03 PDT 2007


Larry Bartels <http://www.princeton.edu/~bartels/income.pdf>:


> Census Bureau data reveal large, consistent differences in patterns
> of real pre-tax income growth
> under Democratic and Republican presidents in the post-war U.S.
> Democratic presidents have
> produced slightly more income growth for poor families than for
> rich families, resulting in a
> modest decrease in overall inequality. Republican presidents have
> produced a great deal more
> income growth for rich families than for poor families, resulting
> in a substantial increase in
> inequality. On average, families at the 95th percentile of the
> income distribution have
> experienced identical income growth under Democratic and Republican
> presidents, while those
> at the 20th percentile have experienced more than four times as
> much income growth under
> Democrats as they have under Republicans. These differences are
> attributable to partisan
> differences in unemployment (which has been 30 percent lower under
> Democratic presidents, on
> average) and GDP growth (which has been 30 percent higher under
> Democratic presidents, on
> average); both unemployment and GDP growth have much stronger
> effects on income growth at
> the bottom of the income distribution than at the top. Similar
> partisan differences appear in the
> distribution of post-tax income growth of households since 1980,
> despite the fact that the
> corresponding pre-tax income growth data for that period show
> little evidence of partisan
> differences.

My own work in this area shows that Dems are better for employment growth and the stock market, and Reps for disinflation and the bond market.



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