[lbo-talk] Engelhardt: Dems accept 10+ years in Iraq and counting

Robert Wrubel bobwrubel at yahoo.com
Thu Oct 4 06:41:33 PDT 2007


Andie, It depends on how you understand the insurgents, who they are, what their aims are; and how active you imagine the Americans will be. If America's goals there are to protect oil infrastructure, etc, and the Sunnis continue to want to frustrate them in that, then casualities will continue. If, somehow, the Sunnis are content with some federal arrangement that protects their interests, and the Americans are mainly interested in projecting force to the whole region, then maybe some sort of ugly accomadation can develop. This scenario assumes that ethnic cleansing has been fully carried out after two=three years, and the country has effectively become three statelets, with two of them relatively calm. It's all too ugly to think about. Bob

--- andie nachgeborenen <andie_nachgeborenen at yahoo.com> wrote:


>
> Robert, Well, how will they disarm the Iraqi
> insurgents? If they couldn't do it with a 150,000
> troops, how can they expect to with a drastically
> reduced force? And of course we are in no condition
> to
> go to war with Iran.
>
> Joanna, I guess I was unclear in my musing. I didn't
> mean how the ruling class will get away with it. Of
> course they will, because the Dems & the GOP both
> seem
> to think it's a good idea, at least until the
> helicopters have to lift of the embassy roof.
>
> What I meant is how the _Dems_ expect to get away
> with
> it. Their prospects are looking pretty good right
> now
> because the war is increasingly unpopular. If they
> stick with the war, even if the GOP does as well,
> their prospects are not going to be so good. It will
> be their war then and people will refuse to turn out
> in droves, losing them seats and maybe a second term
> presidency.
>
> --- Robert Wrubel <bobwrubel at yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> > Andie N wrote:
> > "This is what I expected and feared. But how can
> > they
> > > get away with it? Won't continued occupation
> come
> > > back to bite them?"
> >
> > I can see a way -- a horribly maimed, divided and
> > disfunctional state, not to mention disarmed -- in
> > which the Americans could stay in their fortified
> > bases without further American casualties. Iraqi
> > caualties would of course vanish from view.
> >
> > But this state is unimaginable with Iran next
> door,
> > so
> > my fear is that this imagined "stable" state in
> Iraq
> > would also require the dismantling of Iran. That's
> > the
> > scenario I dont see how they can get away with.
> >
> > BobW
> >
> >
> > --- andie nachgeborenen
> > <andie_nachgeborenen at yahoo.com> wrote:
> >
> > >
> > > This is what I expected and feared. But how can
> > they
> > > get away with it? Won't continued occupation
> come
> > > back
> > > to bite them at mid-term and even the next
> general
> > > election? This isn't like Korea, where the
> killing
> > > and
> > > dying mostly stopped after the armistice. As
> long
> > as
> > > we are there the body bags and maimed and
> damaged
> > > will
> > > be coming home. Besides. What's magic about ten
> > > years?
> > > What reason does anyone have to think that in
> ten
> > > years things will better enough so that whatever
> > is
> > > impelling them to stay in Iraq that long will be
> > > fixed?
> > >
> > > --- Michael Pollak <mpollak at panix.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
>
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174844/having_a_carnage_party
> > > >
> > > > posted October 02, 2007 4:33 pm
> > > >
> > > > Tomgram
> > > >
> > > > We Count, They Don't
> > > >
> > > > By Tom Engelhardt
> > > >
> > > > <snip>
> > > >
> > > > Counting to Five, to Ten, to Fifty
> > > >
> > > > Right now, leading Democrats, as well as
> > > > Republicans, are focused on
> > > > counting to both five and ten, which turn
> > out
> > > to
> > > > be the same thing.
> > > > In a recent debate among the Democratic
> > > > candidates for the
> > > > presidency, for instance, the top three
> (by
> > > > media and polling
> > > > agreement), Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama,
> > and
> > > > John Edwards refused
> > > > to commit to having all American troops
> out
> > of
> > > > Iraq by 2013, the end
> > > > of a first term in office -- five years
> from
> > > > now, and 10 years from
> > > > the March 2003 launching of the invasion.
> > > >
> > > > Like much else of recent vintage, this
> > 10-year
> > > > count may have
> > > > started with our surge commander in Iraq,
> > > > General David Petraeus,
> > > > who, for some time, has been telling just
> > > about
> > > > anyone willing to
> > > > listen that counter-insurgency operations
> in
> > > > Iraq could take "up to
> > > > a decade." ("In fact," he told Fox News in
> > > June,
> > > > "typically, I think
> > > > historically, counter-insurgency
> operations
> > > have
> > > > gone at least nine
> > > > or 10 years.") Now, it seems, his
> > > > to-the-horizon-and-beyond Iraqi
> > > > timetable has largely been subsumed into
> an
> > > > inside-the-Beltway
> > > > consensus that no one -- not in this
> > > > administration or the next, not
> > > > a new president or a new Congress -- will
> > end
> > > > our involvement in
> > > > Iraq in the foreseeable future; that, in
> > fact,
> > > > we must stay in Iraq
> > > > and that, the worse it gets, the more that
> > > > becomes true -- if only
> > > > to protect the Iraqis (and our interests
> in
> > > the
> > > > Middle East) from
> > > > even worse.
> > > >
> > > > Conservative New York Times columnist
> David
> > > > Brooks put it this way
> > > > on the NewsHour with Jim Lehrer: "[The
> > > Democrats
> > > > in Congress are]
> > > > not going to cut off funding, and we've
> seen
> > > and
> > > > we saw in the
> > > > debate this week, there are going to be
> > > probably
> > > > U.S. troops in Iraq
> > > > there 10 years, regardless who's elected.
> So
> > > > they're not going to
> > > > win on this." Liberal warhawk George
> Packer
> > in
> > > > the New Yorker
> > > > recently wrote a long article, "Planning
> for
> > > > Defeat," laying out
> > > > many of the reasons why Iraq remains a
> > > disaster
> > > > area and discussing
> > > > various methods of withdrawal before
> > plunking
> > > > for a policy summed up
> > > > in the suggestion of an anonymous Bush
> > > > administration official,
> > > > "Declare defeat and stay in." Packer
> > > concluded:
> > > > "Whenever this
> > > > country decides that the bloody experience
> > in
>
=== message truncated ===



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