Kolko: All the significant economic journals (Financial Times, Wall
Street Journal, etc.) recognize that the American and European
economies are now in a crisis, and it may be protracted. The dollar
is falling; Gulf States and others may abandon it (as an investment
currency). A war with Iran would produce economic chaos because oil
would be scarce. There are states which the United States wishes to
isolate, like Russia and Venezuela, who can develop great influence
through their ability to sell oil in such a crisis. The balance of
world economic power is involved, and that is a great issue.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: But aren't the Gulf States interested in seeing Iran
weakened through a conflict with the United States?
Kolko: The Gulf States do not like Shia Iran, but they export oil,
which makes them rich. They are dependent on peace, not war.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: How would Iran react to a provocation by the United
States, say, on the border? Could the Iranian military in any way be
a match for the United States?
Kolko: Iran fought Iraq for about a decade and lost hundreds of
thousands of men. Perhaps they will roll over, but it is not likely.
There are a number of tiny islands in the gulf they have had years to
fortify. Can 90 percent of their weapons be knocked out? Even if this
United States could achieve this, the remainder would be sufficient
to sink many boats and tankers. The amount of oil exported through
the gulf would thereby be reduced, perhaps cease altogether. This
would only strengthen American rivals like Russia and Venezuela. SPIEGEL ONLINE: Do you think that conflict with Iran is likely?
Kolko: All the significant economic journals (Financial Times, Wall
Street Journal, etc.) recognize that the American and European
economies are now in a crisis, and it may be protracted. The dollar
is falling; Gulf States and others may abandon it (as an investment
currency). A war with Iran would produce economic chaos because oil
would be scarce. There are states which the United States wishes to
isolate, like Russia and Venezuela, who can develop great influence
through their ability to sell oil in such a crisis. The balance of
world economic power is involved, and that is a great issue.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: But aren't the Gulf States interested in seeing Iran
weakened through a conflict with the United States?
Kolko: The Gulf States do not like Shia Iran, but they export oil,
which makes them rich. They are dependent on peace, not war.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: How would Iran react to a provocation by the United
States, say, on the border? Could the Iranian military in any way be
a match for the United States?
Kolko: Iran fought Iraq for about a decade and lost hundreds of
thousands of men. Perhaps they will roll over, but it is not likely.
There are a number of tiny islands in the gulf they have had years to
fortify. Can 90 percent of their weapons be knocked out? Even if this
United States could achieve this, the remainder would be sufficient
to sink many boats and tankers. The amount of oil exported through
the gulf would thereby be reduced, perhaps cease altogether. This
would only strengthen American rivals like Russia and Venezuela.
full: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,511492,00.html
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