I meant to post this article when it came out 2 weeks ago but it got buried in my inbox. But I haven't seen this story reported in any mainstream outlets since then, so it's still fresh.
(It also has great intelligence and irony in the writing. From his name, I would think this guy might be a stringer from the country. It would be great if he became their main Lebanon correspondent. But he's probably too good for the Times except when no one's looking.)
The lines that most struck me were the description of Aoun, who is usually not even mentioned in articles in the US about Lebanon. The struggle there is always as a the Hezbolloah vs. the Sunnis and Christians, rather than Shiite + Christian vs. Sunni + Christian -- with probably more Christians on Hezbollah's side -- which has been the real dividing line ever since the March 14 movement began. And when Aoun has been mentioned in passing, it's usually been preceded by blase ritual spitting, since he is allied with Hezbollah and is pro-Syrian, and hence obviously a wingnut, as opposed to the "modernizers" on the other side. But here you have a very different description of his place in the ideological universe of Lebanon:
<quote>
The struggle is over who gets to be the next president, a post reserved
for a Christian under Lebanons Constitution, and which must be filled
by the end of November. But the larger question one that is prompting
rival Christian factions to threaten war is whether Lebanese Christians
must accept their minority status and get along with the Muslim
majority (the choice of the popular Gen. Michel Aoun) or whether
Christians should insist on special privileges no matter what their
share of the population (the position of veteran civil war factions
like the Phalange and the Lebanese Forces).
<quote>
A very different description than you usually get of what used to be called the "Cedar Revolution" side of the conflict.
Michael
==========
The New York Times
October 6, 2007
Christian Split in Lebanon Raises Specter of Civil War
By THANASSIS CAMBANIS
BEIRUT, Lebanon, Oct. 5 With the Islamist group Hezbollah having
brought Lebanese politics to a standstill, the countrys once-dominant
Christian community feels under siege and has begun re-establishing
militias, training in the hills and stockpiling weapons.
Many Lebanese say another civil war like the 15-year one that started
in 1975 is imminent and that the most dangerous flash points are within
the divided Christian community.
Christian youth are signing up for militant factions in the greatest
numbers since the end of the civil war, spray painting nationalist
symbols on walls and tattooing them on their skin, and proclaiming
their willingness to fight in a new civil war in particular, against
fellow Christians.
When the war begins, Ill be the first one in it, said Fadil Abbas, 30,
flexing his biceps in Shadow Tattoo as an artist etched a cross onto
his shoulder. I want everyone to know I am a Christian and I am ready
to fight.
The struggle is over who gets to be the next president, a post reserved
for a Christian under Lebanons Constitution, and which must be filled
by the end of November. But the larger question one that is prompting
rival Christian factions to threaten war is whether Lebanese Christians
must accept their minority status and get along with the Muslim
majority (the choice of the popular Gen. Michel Aoun) or whether
Christians should insist on special privileges no matter what their
share of the population (the position of veteran civil war factions
like the Phalange and the Lebanese Forces).
The government dedicated an extraordinary cabinet session in September
to reports that Christian factions had opened militia training camps in
the mountains. The police have arrested two groups of Christians
allegedly linked to General Aouns party the most recent on Thursday and
accused them of illegal weapons training. One group said that they were
on a picnic and the other that they were playing. General Aoun said his
followers keep only personal weapons, like most Lebanese.
Mr. Abbas, the man in the tattoo parlor, used to work as a luxury hotel
receptionist. In the last six months, in anticipation of a coming
struggle, he has moved his family out of Beirut to the mountains, and
has joined the militant wing of the Lebanese Forces, a pro-government
party.
Government leaders say they worry that within days of a renewed
conflict, heavy weapons could flow to rival Christian factions from
Israel, France, Syria, or even the United States.
There are trainings. Thats a huge mistake, Saad Hariri, a Sunni Muslim
who leads the pro-Western governing coalition, said. Militarization has
not spiraled out of control, he said, but open, armed conflict could
set off an unstoppable chain reaction.
The bold talk and the throngs of youths converging on recruitment
offices throughout Beirut and in Christian towns in the mountains,
stand in marked contrast to Hezbollah and the Sunni parties, which have
urged restraint on their own militias.
In the Christian suburbs of Beirut, activists from the Phalange and the
Lebanese Forces have opened recruitment offices, organized marches to
protest the killings of Christian politicians, and are preparing for a
hotly contested campaign in university student council elections this
month, which are taken seriously as a proxy for popular support.
On the other side of the Christian divide, followers of General Aoun
and Suleiman Franjieh two Christian groups allied with Hezbollah and
considered pro-Syrian have stepped up their youth summer camp programs,
a combination of hiking and political indoctrination. They have joined
Hezbollahs marches and occupation of downtown Beirut, and, according to
the government, have engaged in militia training in Hezbollah camps.
Since the countrys last census in 1932, when Christians accounted for
about 55 percent of the population, their numbers have shrunk to an
estimated 30 percent. The president and the leader of the armed forces
must always be a Christian, but since the Christian community is so
bitterly divided, Shiite and Sunni Muslim leaders often end up choosing
the candidates for them.
The government has avoided a new census because of the repercussions:
power is delicately divided among Lebanons officially recognized 18
sects.
Traditional Christian leaders notably Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros
Sfeir, Lebanons chief Maronite cleric are trying to broker a
compromise. The patriarch has welcomed leaders to Bkirke, his compound
overlooking the sea north of Beirut. But his pronouncements about what
kind of leader should assume the presidency have been all but ignored.
Vociferous Christians who oppose the government, like Antoine Franjieh
youth leader for the pro-Syrian opposition faction Marada say that only
an alliance with the dominant Shiite Muslims can protect the Christian
community. Mr. Franjieh, 26, (a distant relative of his partys top
leader) lives in the mountains of north Lebanon, in the Christian
stronghold of Zgharta. Like many Christian movements, his party builds
support around a bizarre iconography, reminiscent of early-20th-century
European fascism; his party has adopted the symbol for pi to express
constancy, and another group has chosen the Greek letter omega, for
resistance.
Recruiters like Mr. Franjieh spout tales of martyrdom at the hands of
other Christians from the civil war and slogans like Mr. Franjiehs
favorite, repeated without apparent irony: My country, right or wrong.
The Christians allied with Hezbollah have had to overcome their own
deeply entrenched prejudice against Muslims, Mr. Franjieh said: We were
always taught that we were superior to the Muslims. Now we must realize
they are our brothers, and we must help each other.
As he drives toward the party headquarters in Zgharta, he waves his
hands at the abandoned houses in a village on the ridge: On paper,
according to the census, a thousand Christians live here. But you will
find no one here. All of them have left.