[lbo-talk] "Russian government quits, Putin succession heats up"

[B.]

Russian government quits, Putin succession heats up

by Sebastian Smith 56 minutes ago

Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed his prime
minister and government Wednesday, paving the way for
the Kremlin leader to handpick a successor when he
steps down next year.

The replacement of Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov with
a barely known finance official, Viktor Zubkov, came
three months before parliamentary elections and less
than six months ahead of a presidential poll to
replace Putin.

The lower house of parliament is expected on Friday to
rubber stamp the nomination of Zubkov, head of the
government's financial crimes investigation agency and
a former Soviet state farm manager.

Analysts saw 65-year-old Zubkov's sudden rise as the
launch of a long-awaited plan to arrange a replacement
for Putin when he steps down at the end of a second
term in 2008.

Putin hinted at this, saying he wanted to prepare "the
country for the period after the presidential
election."

But just who will step into his shoes remains one of
the biggest mysteries of global politics.

Not one political heavyweight has thrown his hat in
the ring for the March 2, 2008 election, leaving the
world guessing who will head the energy producing
giant and nuclear-weapons superpower -- a process that
can resemble Soviet-era "Kremlinology."

News that Fradkov was stepping down sent the rumour
mill into overdrive.

After all, Putin himself rose to power from obscurity
after first being named prime minister in 1999, then
taking over the presidency from Boris Yeltsin in a
barely contested election in 2000.

The Vedomosti daily fuelled speculation with a report
Wednesday that Sergei Ivanov, the first deputy prime
minister in Fradkov's government, was about to become
prime minister.

Ex-KGB general Ivanov, 54, has never said he will run
for president but is widely considered a favourite
along with the other first deputy premier, the
bureaucrat Dmitry Medvedev.

Both men are shown almost daily on state-run
television making them among the country's best known
politicians -- despite never having held elected
office.

Independent analyst Yuliya Latynina said the choice of
the barely known Zubkov meant Putin did not yet want
to make his choice public. "This is not a solution but
the putting off of a solution until a later time," she
said.

Others go further, saying that Putin is keeping his
options open possibly in order to hold on to power
himself.

The constitution limits presidents to two consecutive
terms, but would allow a third term at a later date --
either at the next scheduled presidential election in
2012 or in much earlier snap polls.

Kremlin-connected analyst Vladimir Nikonov saw the
appointment of Zubkov as "creating a system of power
for the temporary period in which, I believe, Putin
will not be president."

"Putin will be able to return to this post because he
will step down with such huge popularity ratings,"
Nikonov told Interfax news agency.

The Communist Party leader, Gennady Zyuganov, said
Putin was bogged down in the increasingly Byzantine
political debate: "It's obvious that Mr Putin simply
couldn't resolve the successor problem."

Kremlinology -- which in Soviet times meant
scrutinising the line-up of leaders at Red Square
parades for clues to politburo policy -- has always
been a hazardous business.

Moscow Carnegie Centre analyst Masha Lipman said she
also thought Putin was considering a long-term return
to power.

But she warned against drawing early conclusions.

"We are involved in deciphering signals from above.
It's total opaqueness in decision-making. It signifies
the separation of the state from society," she said.