--- "B." <docile_body at yahoo.com> wrote:
> Russian government quits, Putin succession heats up
>
> by Sebastian Smith 56 minutes ago
>
FWIW, here's occasional LBO poster Peter Lavelle's take on this:
Russia Today www.russiatoday.ru September 13, 2007 Peter Lavelle's blog Moscow: The political transition begins
The nomination of Viktor Zubkov surprised us all. Many of us thought Mikhail Fradkov would leave before the December parliamentary election, but none of us predicted the appointment of Zubkov. What is happening?
Given what we know, this is my take:
Zubkov most likely will not be the next president. His entire career tells us he is a competent public servant. Zubkov has not shown any intereste in a political career or ever wanted media attention - though this could change.
But does this mean he won't be the next president? It is way too early to speculate. But he can run if he wants. Being prime minister is a strong position to appeal to voters. But it is not as simple as that. There are unofficial front-runners expected to declare their candidacy soon. So, will Zubkov have to compete with them if he decides to run? Of course he will have to if he throws his hat into the ring. I expect the voters will have a choice (and I think this is what Vladimir Putin hopes and plans for).
What kind of prime minister will Zubkov be? Given his past record, he will carry out the duties required of him, and faithfully push through the President's agenda. And in this case, at the very least, he will watch over the Government as Russia goes through its election cycle. How will he do this? Well, that is the interesting thing about Zubkov. He knows just about everything about the finances of the political and business elites. Zubkov has been watching them and now they will be watching him.
How long will Zubkov be Prime Minister? Well the PM works for the president. He will work for the current president, Vladimir Putin - that is for sure. But what about the next one? Again, it is way too early to really speculate. But it is not impossible Zubkov could be kept on by the new president elected in spring of next year.
Just a reminder - the position of prime minister is really only overseeing the economy, budget expenditures, and social programmes. The PM is Russia's top bureaucrat. There is no meaningful political weight attached to the position. So keep that in mind when thinking about Zubkov's political future.
Is Zubkov - if he remains PM - only a continuity figure? Probably yes, and I think that is a very good idea. Russia is going through a leadership transition. Having a solid figure like Zubkov at the helm ensures the transition will go smoothly. I have no doubts he will serve Putin well - and if need be, become the next president.
The transition from Fradkov to Zubkov is important in the here and now, but bigger events are looming. What about the government he will propose to the President? Will First Deputy Prime Ministers Sergey Ivanov and Dimity Medvedev be retained? If they aren't, then the question of who'll succeed Putin as President will be blown wide open. Both are thought be to undeclared front-runners.
What of the new Government? Who will stay and who will go? Beyond the names of Ivanov and Medvedev, there is talk that German Gref may not be re-instated. Others on the hit list don't really interest me. Cabinets change - that is the nature of democratic governments. But the loss of Gref would disappoint me. He is often criticized, but he is a true advocate of opening Russia to foreign trade and a force behind Russian companies expanding abroad.
Lastly, are we experiencing a repeat of the 1990-2000 transition of power? No, I really doubt this. Boris Yeltsin - by then - was very unpopular. Putin, on the other hand, is very popular. As Russian voters go to the polls they will be looking for a candidate who will continue Putin's agenda. Given recent events, they will probably have a number of candidates who might fit the bill.
Let the games begin!
Stay tuned! I will have A LOT more to say on Russia's election cycle!
Peter Lavelle is a political commentator at Russia Today television. The above are his opinions only and may not reflect those of his employer.
____________________________________________________________________________________ Moody friends. Drama queens. Your life? Nope! - their life, your story. Play Sims Stories at Yahoo! Games. http://sims.yahoo.com/