[lbo-talk] "Russian government quits, Putin succession heats up"

[Chris Doss]

--- "B." <docile_body at yahoo.com> wrote:

> Russian government quits, Putin succession heats up
> 
> by Sebastian Smith 56 minutes ago
> 

FWIW, here's occasional LBO poster Peter Lavelle's
take on this:

Russia Today
www.russiatoday.ru
September 13, 2007
Peter Lavelle's blog
Moscow: The political transition begins

The nomination of Viktor Zubkov surprised us all. 
Many of us thought Mikhail Fradkov would leave 
before the December parliamentary election, but 
none of us predicted the appointment of Zubkov. What
is happening?

Given what we know, this is my take:

Zubkov most likely will not be the next 
president. His entire career tells us he is a 
competent public servant. Zubkov has not shown 
any intereste in a political career or ever 
wanted media attention - though this could change.

But does this mean he won't be the next 
president? It is way too early to speculate. But 
he can run if he wants. Being prime minister is a 
strong position to appeal to voters. But it is 
not as simple as that. There are unofficial 
front-runners expected to declare their candidacy 
soon. So, will Zubkov have to compete with them 
if he decides to run? Of course he will have to 
if he throws his hat into the ring. I expect the 
voters will have a choice (and I think this is 
what Vladimir Putin hopes and plans for).

What kind of prime minister will Zubkov be? Given 
his past record, he will carry out the duties 
required of him, and faithfully push through the 
President's agenda. And in this case, at the very 
least, he will watch over the Government as 
Russia goes through its election cycle. How will 
he do this? Well, that is the interesting thing 
about Zubkov. He knows just about everything 
about the finances of the political and business 
elites. Zubkov has been watching them and now they
will be watching him.

How long will Zubkov be Prime Minister? Well the 
PM works for the president. He will work for the 
current president, Vladimir Putin - that is for 
sure. But what about the next one? Again, it is 
way too early to really speculate. But it is not 
impossible Zubkov could be kept on by the new 
president elected in spring of next year.

Just a reminder - the position of prime minister 
is really only overseeing the economy, budget 
expenditures, and social programmes. The PM is 
Russia's top bureaucrat. There is no meaningful 
political weight attached to the position. So 
keep that in mind when thinking about Zubkov's
political future.

Is Zubkov - if he remains PM - only a continuity 
figure? Probably yes, and I think that is a very 
good idea. Russia is going through a leadership 
transition. Having a solid figure like Zubkov at 
the helm ensures the transition will go smoothly. 
I have no doubts he will serve Putin well - and 
if need be, become the next president.

The transition from Fradkov to Zubkov is 
important in the here and now, but bigger events 
are looming. What about the government he will 
propose to the President? Will First Deputy Prime 
Ministers Sergey Ivanov and Dimity Medvedev be 
retained? If they aren't, then the question of 
who'll succeed Putin as President will be blown 
wide open. Both are thought be to undeclared
front-runners.

What of the new Government? Who will stay and who 
will go? Beyond the names of Ivanov and Medvedev, 
there is talk that German Gref may not be 
re-instated. Others on the hit list don't really 
interest me. Cabinets change - that is the nature 
of democratic governments. But the loss of Gref 
would disappoint me. He is often criticized, but 
he is a true advocate of opening Russia to 
foreign trade and a force behind Russian companies
expanding abroad.

Lastly, are we experiencing a repeat of the 
1990-2000 transition of power? No, I really doubt 
this. Boris Yeltsin - by then - was very 
unpopular. Putin, on the other hand, is very 
popular. As Russian voters go to the polls they 
will be looking for a candidate who will continue 
Putin's agenda. Given recent events, they will 
probably have a number of candidates who might fit the
bill.

Let the games begin!

Stay tuned! I will have A LOT more to say on Russia's
election cycle!

Peter Lavelle is a political commentator at 
Russia Today television. The above are his 
opinions only and may not reflect those of his
employer.



       
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