[lbo-talk] the raid on Syria

Wojtek Sokolowski sokol at jhu.edu
Mon Sep 17 08:05:02 PDT 2007


DRR:

Sorry, I don't believe this for a single second. Russia produces some of the most effective weapons systems in the world. But Putin is not going to pour gasoline on a fire. Those missiles are a deterrent against a major war, and safely turned off in some bunkers somewhere. Probably Israel was trying to provoke a war, but failed.

I'm sure the Russian tech crews were overjoyed at the bonanza of free intel on Israeli flight patterns and signal jamming technology, though.

[WS:] That reminds me of the Enigma story from the WW2. Enigma was a sophisticated German coding machine used for military communications. The Brits broke the code and could read the German communications, but they also kept that very secret, because the Germans would have changed the codes had they learned that the Brits could read them. As a result of that secrecy, the Brits were willing to incur some minor sacrifices rather than tipping off the Germans that they could read their military communications. Losing a few transport ships every now and them was a price the Brits were willing to pay for keeping an ace in their sleeve for when they really needed it.

A somewhat similar situation is shown in the film "The Lives of Others." The dissidents want to test if they are being monitored by Stasi by talking about a bogus plan of smuggling something to the West. The Stasi agent of course intercepts the conversation, but instead of acting on it - as the Stasi would normally do - he does not forward it to his superiors because he is starting to have doubts about his mission. The dissidents interpret the lack of Stasi reaction as a sign that they are not being monitored, a costly mistake indeed.

Wojtek

Wojtek



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