[[A word of explanation: I believe I had last posted twice on
this topic and left off without responding to a few replies. Sorry. To my
regret I am only able to post a bit, and from time to time. Also we had
(so quickly!) reached the point where Doug's response to me was:
>I detect some of the leftish impulse to deny that any improvement is
>ever possible in life.
With only a few posts possible, I try to focus to sharing what little
information I may have so as to help people on the list form their own
opinions. I also try to avoid discussions where we question each others'
motivations. So sorry if I didn't reply.]]
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Thanks to Doug for pointing this out and pursuing the issue with Clive. I
imagine this was off the air (on the air Clive said "it [the change in
population] is not the whole picture"). Did Clive tell you of any data
sources or Epidemiologists he spoke to? Most curiously, on the air Clive
hinged his views on the premise that the high mortality populations
(native born blacks, latinos, etc) have NOT been forced out of NYC in large
numbers. But surely the US Census Bureau has now closed that discussion
and the New York Times has reportedly so on its front pages. I did post
the links.
((BTW, a few days ago the NYT also reports the most recent Census Bureau (the ACS survey) figures show similar trends are now beginning in Chicago, San Francisco, Atlanta, Boston, Washington and possibly Los Angeles - so watch out, mortality "success" may be coming your way next.)) "Census Shows More Black Residents Are Leaving New York and Other Cities" http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/12/nyregion/12census.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1190229015-Uzey0fPH1t3FA78uuBXNiQ
Below I will provide additional links to the official data and a sample of the plentiful professional literature that contradicts Clive both about the impact of demographic change in NYC and its effect on the mortality rate. These links are in addition to the 4 links to official data (2 via the NYT) that I provided in my two previous posts. --------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------- A Recap To remind lbo-ers: the question is whether NYC, in recent years, has shown a marked improvement in life expectancy - over other similar places. Clive infers this is due to either NYC govt policy or something unique about NYC lifestyle. But, IMO, this touches on the wider and important issues of the changing structure of American cities (a new European/neoliberal blend) as well as the nature of US immigration. I recognize that Doug may be making a point in favor of the Bloomberg Administration, but that issue is not my main focus.
I pointed out that the recent NYC "improvement" in life expectancy over the last say 10 years - above other cities - is largely not real social progress. Mostly, it is merely a statistical byproduct of NYC's demographic shifts. Groups with high mortality have been driven outside NYC (native born blacks, native born latinos, and probably elderly working class whites). Groups with relatively low mortality rates (either permanently low, or just for this stage in their lives) have moved into NYC (i.e. middle class white families, and the new immigrants who have good health if only for now). If I am correct, I am sure we can all agree this is certainly not social progress.
OTOH, *if* Clive or Bloomberg could show unique NYC improvement in life expectancy among age-specific cohort groups (e.g. native born blacks adjusted by age) that WOULD be social progress above other cities. But, alas, neither Clive nor the Bloomberg Administration claim THAT type of improvement (although it has happened in NYC in the past and, IMO, is readily achievable). Likewise, AFAIK, no such NYC progress (i.e. within cohorts) has ever been discovered in the plethora of epidemiological studies (see below) or through the official data (see below). Nor, AFAIK, can anyone point to any Guliani or Bloomberg Administration public health initiative that conceivably could have lead to such unique progress among such groups. This is because no such public health initiative has been launched. (Instead there have been smoking and cooking oil measures may show some small benefits several decades from now.) --------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------
Turning to Doug's post:
1) The important impact of new immigrants on lowering the mortality averages is well known and well documented in the professional literature.
Below I will give 4 examples from the epidemiology literature that are readily found on the web - including NYC's own Dept of Health and the most establishment public health journals. (PLEASE at least look at the numbers they cite before arguing that these are minor differences. And pls recall the data I provided earlier: foreign born and their dependents are now 60% of NYC.) Clive can find 30 more such examples of the data and of Journal articles if he looks in Google. The sources are NYC's official numbers (DOH Vital Statistics) as well as US Census Bureau (thus not contrived by leftists).
2) But the point here is not just the immigrants. Their arrival in NYC (along with affluent white families) goes along with the massive (often forced by the "market") departures. Specifically I cited:
- the rise in middle class whites, especially white families;
- the forced large scale departure of native born blacks;
- a similar large scale departure of native born latinos;
- a probable (I have seen no numbers) departure in elderly working class whites;
I cited several prominent stories in the NY Times that summarized the many US Census Bureau Reports that all point to this. Two days ago there was yet another prominent story in the New York Times regarding the departure of native born blacks.
How is this "minor"? Every Puerto Rican who is replaced by a foreign born Latino lives on average 8 years longer (see NYC Dept of Health below). Of course the displacement of native born blacks by affluent whites produces even larger effects. And the displacements are well above a million.
3) In contrast to data, Clive offers various theories for why NYC is "pulling away" from the rest in life expectancy, such as:
- In NYC the transportation system obliges you to walk a lot (what did NYCers do in the years before the "improvement ?!).
- The attractive architecture invites walking.
- There are parks.
- And the benefits of gentrification for the poor (!) who are left behind is so strong that they suddenly have lived longer.
4) We have heard a lot of this...'look how NYC has improved in the last 10 years'. They are asking the wrong questions. We should ask...'have the *people* who lived in NYC 10 years ago seen improvement? Who got that improvement? And could it have readily been much better?
Asking a different question leads to different answers. We are about people not places. Paul
-------------------------------------------------------- Epidemiological Reports: American Journal of Public Health "All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality of Immigrants and Native Born in the United States" Gopal K. Singh, PhD, MS, MSc, and Mohammad Siahpush, PhD, MS "Results: Immigrant men and women had, respectively, an 18% and 13% lower risk of overall mortality than their US born counterparts." http://www.ajph.org/cgi/reprint/91/3/392.pdf
International Journal of Epidemiology 2006 35(4):903-919 " Trends and disparities in socioeconomic and behavioural characteristics, life expectancy, and cause-specific mortality of native-born and foreign-born populations in the United States, 1979–2003" Gopal K Singh1,* and Robert A Hiatt "Results: During 1979–81, immigrants had 2.3 years longer life expectancy than the US-born (76.2 vs 73.9 years). The difference increased to 3.4 years in 1999–2001 (80.0 vs 76.6 years)." http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/35/4/903
NY City Dept of Health and Mental Hygiene
"The Health of Immigrants in NY City"
>For each of the 10 leading causes of death in New York City, foreign-born
>adults have similar or lower death rates than U.S.-born adults.
http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/downloads/pdf/episrv/episrv-immigrant-report.pdf
NY City Dept of Health and Mental Hygiene "Health Disparities in NYC" Graph P. 9 In NYC Peurto Ricans [native born] on average live 8 years less than hispanic non-Puerto Ricans [predominantly non-native born] http://home2.nyc.gov/html/doh/downloads/pdf/epi/disparities-2004.pdf
"The Health of Immigrants in New York City: Demographics, Health Status,
and Health Utilization of Recent Immigrants." Marianne C. Fahs, PhD, MPH
Peter Muennig, MD, MPH
>We find that the foreign born have lower mortality rates than native-born
>(and Puerto-Rican) New Yorkers, and are much less likely to be
>hospitalized for most major categories of illness than are native-born
>populations.
http://www.newschool.edu/icmec/luceproj.html
Data: Although not even the Bloomberg Commissioner claims that cohort groups have improved in NYC (above other comparable places) you can see for yourself that this has not happenned, despite Clive, by or stitching/eyeballing what is published. (The reason you have to do this is because the Bloomberg Administration stopped providing NYC health data to the standard profesional source InfoShare although their website points out that NY State continues to provide data for the rest of the State http://infoshare.org/ . The Bloomberg Administration has also withdrawn from the publicly available data the breakdown of health by native born although they continue to publish this data in selective publications in a manner that prevents comparison with its claimed trends.
So you stitch the data as follows:
A) To see the "progress" fade see the breakdown without Native/Foreign Born: NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, Bureau of Vital Statistics, Office of Vital Records
Table 22 "Life Expectancy at Specified Ages by Sex and Ethnic Group, New York City, 1989-1991 and 1999-2001" http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/downloads/pdf/vs/2005sum.pdf
B) Or fiddle with the numbers yourself: EpiQuery https://a816-health3ssl.nyc.gov/
C) Then compare with the national trends: CDC Nat. Center for Health Statistics e.g. scroll down to Fig. 2 http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/pubs/pubd/hestats/prelimdeaths05/prelimdeaths05.htm#fig2
or National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 54, No. 14, April 19, 2006 Table 11. Life expectancy by age, race, and sex: Death-registration States http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr54/nvsr54_14.pdf