Doug wrote:
> A lead less than the margin of error is a tie. And the larger point
> is that BHO's 10-point lead before Pennsylvania has collapsed.
Does anyone have a hypothesis about this, because it sure mystifies me. Obama did have an off night at the last debate, but Hillary's not any more likable now than she was two weeks ago. Nor is there any reason to think she'll be better able to beat McCain. She was expected to win in Pennsylvania, so the post-Penn-Primary question "why can't he close?" strikes me as a non sequitur; yet it seems to have got some traction in the media. As far as I can tell, McCain would still rather run against Hillary, which indicates that his people at least think Obama would be a stronger candidate than Hillary, and they're probably right. I note in passing that Obama looks & sounds more weary than he did a couple of weeks ago, no doubt for good reason, so perhaps that's feeding into the sense that he might not pull off the nomination.
But I'd be interested to know what others think.
Gary