http://www.juancole.com/2008/08/parliament-adjourns-with-no-provincial.html
Informed Comment Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion
Thursday, August 07, 2008
Parliament Adjourns with No Provincial Election Law; Arab Tribes Threaten Violence
The Iraqi parliament proved unable to pass a provincial elections law
on Wednesday despite a marathon 4-hour extraordinary session. They
adjourned for the rest of the month. The sticking point was finding an
acceptable formula for holding the elections in the mixed province of
Kirkuk, which is being fought over by Kurds, Turkmen and Arabs. The
failure to pass the law makes it virtually impossible to hold
provincial elections in 2008.
Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Speaker of the House Mahmud
al-Mashhadani postponed the debate until September 9. A multi-party
working group will continue to work on the problem in the meantime.
Al-Hayat says that the Arab tribal leaders of Kirkuk Province have
threatened violence to "defend the Arab character of the city," which
the Kurdistan Regional Government wants to annex. Shaykh Husayn Ali
al-Juburi, the head of the governing council in Hawija District and
leader of the United Arab Bloc, told the paper, "Arabs have limited
patience," adding, "the Arab tribes in Kirkuk are prepared, and have
the ability, and the reach, in all Iraqi cities." (He means "to commit
violence.")
Al-Hayat also reports that the worsening of the crisis in Kirkuk was a
topic of discussion between President Bashar al-Asad of Syria and
Turkish Prime Minsiter Rejep Tayyip Erdogan as they met at the
presidential palace in Damascus. In a joint communique they urged the
unity of Iraq and the need for security and stability in Iraq." There
were reportedly fears that a failure to resolve the Kirkuk crisis could
lead Iraq to implode.
Al-Zaman gives as one reason for the postponement of the debate to
September was a fear that the Kirkuk issue could lead to an "explosion"
at any moment, with severe security implications for other Iraqi
cities, such as Mosul and those in Diyala province. Al-Zaman also says
that Turkmen and some Arab members of parliament are demanding the
removal of UN negotiator Steffan de Mistura, whon they accuse of bias
(i.e. toward the Kurds). He had suggested that elections in Kirkuk be
postponed while they were held in the rest of the country. The Turkmen
want the elections to be held in Kirkuk at the same time as in the rest
of Iraq.
The elections are important to social peace in Iraq. The January, 2005,
provincial elections were deeply flawed. The Sunni Arabs largely
boycotted them. Only a few party lists had the organization and
experience to contest them effectively-- especially the Islamic Supreme
Council of Iraq, many of whose members had lived in Iran and witnessed
the elections there, which involve a lot of canvassing and sometimes
produce surprise upsets.
Diyala Province, which has a Sunni majority, is ruled by the pro-Tehran
Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq-- a recipe for disaster. Kurds play a
disproportionate role in governing Ninevah, a largely Sunni Arab
province. Al-Anbar Province is dominated by the Sunni fundamentalist
Iraqi Islamic Party, the only one to run in 2005, but only 2% of the
electorate voted. The Dulaim tribal elite and the Awakening Councils
are largely disenfranchised in al-Anbar, which is not a stable
situation. Even the provinces of the Shiite south, which saw good
turnout in 2005, are dominated by the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq,
which ran a good campaign but may no longer be very popular.
Indeed, the lack of enthusiasm for new provincial elections among the
high politicians elected in 2005 can probably be explained in part by
their fear of not running very well and of the rise of challengers,
from the Awakening Councils to the Sadr Movement.
McClatchy quotes a UN official cautioning that if provincial elections
are not held by the end of 2008, they could get postponed until June,
2009.
I am unhappy about the delay in the holding of provincial elections. It
is a step I have been championing for some time, as in my article at
The Nation on "How to Get Out of Iraq" as a preparation for US military
withdrawal. The independent, Durayd Kashmula, cannot rule largely Sunni
Arab Ninevah Province if the US departs it. The Shiite government of
Badr Corps member Ra'ad Hameed Al-Mula Jowad Al-Tamimi, the governor of
Diyala wouldn't last a month if US troops were not around. (The deputy
governor, Awf Rahim, was arrested by US troops last week; that is never
a good sign.)
Even more alarming than the Iraqi parliament's inability to arrange for
provincial elections to be held over 2 years after they were first
scheduled is the reason for the failure. The debate on provincial
elections has revealed that the Kirkuk dispute is a volcano about to
blow, and that ordinary liberal institutions of debate and compromise
seem helpless before the ethno-nationalist passions boiling there.
Resolving Kirkuk is not only key to social peace in northern Iraq but
also in the entire eastern Mediterranean.
<end excerpt>