> I think it's pretty obvious Saakashvili thought the US would back him to
> the hilt (whoops!), but as to whether this was actually instigated by
> Washington? It's possible, but I kind of doubt it.
==================================
So do I, for the following reasons (my comment earlier today on Louis
Proyect's list):
JB writes:
> As things stand now, neither the yanks nor anyone else is coming to
> Georgia's rescue...
It was never in the cards. When the Wall Street Journal said it didn't want war, it was a pretty clear indication it reflected a consensus within the US ruling class - unlike over Iran, where the WSJ editors and their op-ed contributors have been beating the war drums. In fact, Saakashvili's adventurism has vastly complicated and perhaps killed US efforts to incorporate Georgia and the Ukraine into NATO. The Europeans led by Germany have been rebuffing the Americans about NATO expansion because their economic ties with Russia, their main energy supplier, dictates cooperation rather than confrontation, and the last thing they want is to get drawn into a conflict with the Russians which would be triggered by Ukrainian and Georgian membership in the Alliance. As Saakashvili stoked tensions with the Russians over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and became more erratic and unpopular at home -to the dismay of the Americans - it stiffened European resolve even further.
Now the former Wall Street lawyer has provided a graphic demonstration of what the Europeans were going on about. It's unlikely on that account alone, the Americans would have encouraged him to invade. The territorial integrity of Georgia is important - or, at least, that part through which runs the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline - but it more important to the Europeans than to the US, and not such of such vital interest to either that they would risk WW III over it. That's why what you've seen so far is their tacit acceptance of the firm Russian response to clear the Georgians out of South Ossetia, offers to mediate, and the mildest of warnings that if the Russians go deeper into the country, it "could" have a bad effect on effect on relations. Hardly the kind of stuff to make the Russians sweat about another Cuban Missile Crisis. The warnings may get sharper if the fighting escalates or the pipeline is threatened, but the latest indications are that the badly bloodied Georgian leadership clique has withdrawn its troops and is suing for peace. Saakashvili will probably seek exile in the Grand Duchy of South Fenwick.