I leave that to the Kremlin and their - ehem - apologists and to the Administration.
The Bush Administration's blunder in Georgia really can't be overstated. I always make a point of not demonizing or belittling my political enemies in some silly way. I always maintained that President Bush was basically just muddled, weak, ideological, clumsy, misguided by highly ambitious people. I now must conclude that Bush really is stupid and he has finally just dumbed down this Administration so that its actions reflect his "idiocracy". As if all his blunders weren't enough, he tries to help "secure" Europe's non-Russia, non-Iran connection to Caspian petro-resources by backing Saakashvili with - I guess - a program very similar to the one that didn't work with Musharraff. Saakashvili being a popularly-elected dictator, I guess Bush figured he could take a more direct, hands-on approach that, of course, failed even faster this time.
But Putin has made, I think, a terrible miscalculation here also. Bush's blunders in Iraq, the continuing expansion of the EU eastward (a great thing in my view) and the high oil price may have made the temptation too much to bear. He should have borne it. It's understandable that Putin wants to become Europe's Saudi Arabia. Petro-resources seem a quick way to security and prestige for Russia. But putting a stranglehold on those resources is a mistake and this South Ossetia thing is potentially ruinous.
Putin has been smart in many ways that are well known. He's been bold.
Being the second nation to open a consul in Erbil was particularly clever, I think. Putin had made himself a player in Iran, Iraq and and the Caspian. I'm sure the Georgians were an absolute thorn in his side. But this is too much.
Putin is going to find an American aircraft carrier group parked at entrance to the Black Sea. And he is dealing with an Administration that has no sense about other people's political realities. Bush will not understand that in engaging Russian air, armor or - god forbid - troops in Georgia he might as well be bombing Russia itself. He's that stupid. He won't see it and if Putin tries to scare him into seeing it, we will have a shooting war.
Putin thinks he holds all the cards. He sees the American position splayed open, awkward and vulnerable all across regions that are his back yard. The fact that the Administration is using a lot of Russians for airlift these days may give him a sense that he knows the American military situation and that even our air power is too stretched to dare counter him.
He has forgotten cruise missiles flying from ships. He has forgotten American naval air power. It is more than enough to damage his military to the point that he might have to respond more strategically. Bush is stupid enough to use that kind of brute force and brute force is something America has in over-abundance.
Bush has now promised American naval vessels will be bringing "humanitarian relief" to Georgia. That means the American naval vessels will bring a lot of American hardware to the Black Sea and there will be one or even two carrier groups to back them up. This could get very ugly, very fast.
These are two men - one stupid, one smart - playing a VERY dangerous game. It arises out of their respective reckless ambitions to use muscle and crookedness to secure domestic political advantage. This is the worst simultaneous foolishness we have seen from two leaders of major countries in decades. This is criminal lunacy.