Avoiding destabilization of the North Caucasus, mainly. What happens if Georgia takes North Ossetia? Will the Ossetians say, "hey, you guys done beat us, killing lots of us in the process! We're now happy to be Georgians!"? No, what will happen is what happened last time. There will be an insurgency against Georgia repressed by vicious counterinsurgency. This will bring in North Ossetia, as North Ossetians stream in to help their brothers. This will likely bring in the Ingush, as they see the opportunity to get back at North Ossetia while they are occupied. This will bring in the Chechens and the Dagestanis and the Cossacks. It's like a mini-WWI.
--- On Thu, 8/14/08, Andy F <andy274 at gmail.com> wrote:
, I think it's still worth wondering
> what Putin might
> thinking he'll get out of the action, even if it's
> just some rah rahs
> for the home team.
>
> States and their leaders make crummy moral agents, and I
> have a hard
> time imagining military action done out of the goodness of
> somebody's
> heart, whatever the salutory effects.
>
>
>
>
>
> --
> Andy
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